u/CentennialElections

I've had this idea for for quite some time, as Nicole Galloway was the state auditor of Missouri from 2015 to 2023, and was the last Democrat to hold a major statewide office after Claire McCaskill lost in 2018. Since Iowa state auditor Rob Sand has a strong chance of winning the gubernatorial election this year, I decided to do something similar for Missouri.

And yes, in case you're wondering, the Mike Parson image is like that on the actual Wikipedia page.

This is part 1 of a new alternate history series where several circumstances lead to John McCain winning the 2008 presidential election. I'll talk about relevant downballot races in the description, and will think of general margins, but unlike in my previous timelines, I won't give them detailed infoboxes. And as per usual, the margins for my YAPms maps are 1/5/10/15.

In this timeline, the 2008 recession doesn't happen for another year (which will make thing really bad for McCain), and the Democratic nominee is John Edwards instead of Barack Obama. Additionally, his allegations come out in full force while he's on the campaign trail. Despite his controversies, the unpopularity of the Bush administration and the Iraq War, as well as John McCain's selection of Joe Lieberman as Vice President (angering conservatives), make this a very competitive race.

Ultimately, McCain prevails, holding onto the key battlegrounds of Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina (a newcomer to the group of swing states), despite losing Nevada to Edwards. Compared to Barack Obama in our timeline, John Edwards does much worse in the Great Plains and Midwest, while still performing better in the Southeast despite facing a far worse national environment.

The presidential race also has consequences for the US Senate races, with Al Franken (Minnesota), Mark Begich (Alaska), Jeff Merkley (Oregon), and Jeanne Shaheen (New Hampshire) failing to oust their states' Republican incumbents. Even so, Mark Udall barely flips Colorado, Kay Hagan wins narrowly in North Carolina, and Edwards' decent performance in the south helps pull Mary Landrieu over the finish line.

As for the gubernatorial elections, Republican Dino Rossi manages to beat Democrat Christine Gregoire in a rematch of their extremely competitive 2004 election. Otherwise, apart from margins, the races go the same. John Edwards' strong performance in North Carolina still manages to help out Bev Perdue.

In 2009, the Recession finally happens, and this is where thing start to go terribly wrong for McCain. In the gubernatorial races, Republican Chris Christie easily loses to Democrat Jon Corzine in New Jersey. Even Republican Bob McDonnell, who won the Virginia gubernatorial race by over 17% in our timeline, is beaten due to backlash against the McCain administration.

But the real backlash shows in the 2010 midterms. In the US Senate, all Democratic incumbents hang on - even Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas. Byron Dorgan (North Dakota) and Evan Bayh (Indiana) stay in instead of retiring, allowing them to win effortlessly. Barack Obama remains in the Senate, also winning massively. Democrats Joe Sestak (primarying party-switcher Arlen Specter [assume he switches because of the backlash against the McCain/Lieberman ticket]) and incumbent Russ Feingold easily win their races too.

But it doesn't stop there, with Democrats gaining eight seats - Connecticut special election (Republican Michael Fedele, appointed by Jodi Rell to replace Lieberman, is easily beaten by Chris Murphy), Kentucky (Jack Conway defeats Rand Paul), North Carolina (Elaine Marhsall defeats incumbent Richard Burr), Alaska (Scott McAdams defeats incumbent Lisa Murkowski [who defeats Joe Miller in the primary]), Florida (Kendrick Meek defeats Marco Rubio), Missouri (Robin Carnahan defeats Roy Blunt), Ohio (Lee Fisher defeats Rob Portman), and even Louisiana (Charlie Melançon defeats incumbent David Vitter in a stunning upset). In Arizona, Governor Janet Napolitano appoints Democrat Gabby Giffords to McCain's seat, and she beats Republican J. D. Hayworth in 2010.

The gubernatorial races also go terribly for the GOP, with Democrats only losing seats in Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and Michigan - the former three due to term-limited incumbents, and a really strong bipartisan candidate in Michigan (Rick Snyder). Incumbents in Iowa (Chet Culver) and Ohio (Ted Strickland) easily win a second term, while Democrats hold a few key open seats - Wisconsin (Tom Barrett defeats Scott Walker), New Mexico (Diane Denish defeats Susana Martenez), Pennsylvania (Dan Onorato defeats Tom Corbett), and Arizona (Terry Goddard defeats Jan Brewer).

They even make additional flips that they didn't in our timeline - South Carolina (Vincent Shaheen defeats Nikki Haley), Florida (Alex Sink defeats independent Charlie Crist [no R runs for this seat]), Georgia (Former Gov Roy Barnes defeats Nathan Deal and wins a second non-consecutive term), Nevada (Rory Reid defeats Brian Sandoval), Texas (Bill White defeats Rick Perry), and in a huge upset, even Alabama (Ron Sparks barely defeats Robert J. Bentley). Additionally, independent Elliot Cutler easily defeats Republican Paul LePage in Maine.

2011 doesn't go any differently, aside from greater margins for the Democrats.

Now, going into 2012, Democrats hold 64 (including independent Bernie Sanders) seats in the US Senate, compared to Republican's 36. They also hold 33 gubernatorial seats, while Republicans have only 15, and Independents have 2.