Update #2: Calculator improved + 2 more weeks of MyCasesHub data
Hey everyone, back again with another update. I've added 2 more weeks of approval data, made some refinements to the calculator, and pulled some new tables I think people will find useful.
Try it here: https://catchingexcalibur.github.io/approval_calculator/
Source code: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator
All data sourced from MyCasesHub.
Updated median wait time table (12 weeks now)
| Approval week | Cases | Median wait | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9 | 841 | 100 days | — |
| Feb 16 | 289 | 113 days | +13 |
| Feb 23 | 611 | 117 days | +4 |
| Mar 2 | 493 | 119 days | +2 |
| Mar 9 | 639 | 123 days | +4 |
| Mar 23 | 711 | 133 days | +10 |
| Mar 30 | 356 | 139 days | +6 |
| Apr 6 | 681 | 142 days | +3 |
| Apr 13 | 895 | 146 days | +4 |
| Apr 20 | 779 | 153 days | +7 |
| Apr 27 | 213 | 157 days | +4 |
| May 4 | 285 | 157 days | 0 |
Big news: for the first time in 12 weeks, the median wait didn't go up! two weeks in a row at 157 days. That's the first sign of the trend possibly flattening. Not a reversal, but a pause. Too early to say if it sticks.
The 12-week average is still about +5.2 days per week increase, but if the recent flattening holds, that number will come down with future updates.
Updated submission-date frontier
| Approval week | Batch USCIS approved (submission dates) | Advance |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 9 | around Nov 4, 2025 | — |
| Feb 16 | around Oct 28, 2025 | -7 |
| Feb 23 | around Oct 31, 2025 | +3 |
| Mar 2 | around Nov 5, 2025 | +5 |
| Mar 9 | around Nov 7, 2025 | +2 |
| Mar 23 | around Nov 13, 2025 | +6 |
| Mar 30 | around Nov 14, 2025 | +1 |
| Apr 6 | around Nov 17, 2025 | +3 |
| Apr 13 | around Nov 19, 2025 | +2 |
| Apr 20 | around Nov 20, 2025 | +1 |
| Apr 27 | around Nov 21, 2025 | +1 |
| May 4 | around Nov 29, 2025 | +8 |
The May 4 week showed an 8-day jump forward in the frontier, the biggest single-week advance in the entire dataset. Combined with the flat wait time, this suggests USCIS may have caught up a bit. Could be real, could be noise. I'll be watching the next few weeks closely.
What batch USCIS approved over the last 3 weeks (full breakdown)
This is the new section I wanted to include. For each of the last 3 approval weeks, here's the complete breakdown of which submission dates (LBAs) got approved.
Week of Apr 20, 2026 - 779 cases approved
Median LBA: Nov 20, 2025 · Median wait: 153 days
| LBA date | Cases | % of week |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2 | 0.3% |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 1 | 0.1% |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 9 | 1.2% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 11 | 1.4% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 0.1% |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 29 | 3.7% |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 19 | 2.4% |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 206 | 26.4% |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 235 | 30.2% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 102 | 13.1% |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 6 | 0.8% |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 0.1% |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 13 | 1.7% |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 8 | 1.0% |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 0.3% |
| Nov 27, 2025 | 2 | 0.3% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 10 | 1.3% |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 4 | 0.5% |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 24 | 3.1% |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 37 | 4.7% |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 0.1% |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 7 | 0.9% |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 4 | 0.5% |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 0.4% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 8 | 1.0% |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 1 | 0.1% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 0.4% |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 2 | 0.3% |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 0.1% |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 0.1% |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 1 | 0.1% |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 0.3% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 2 | 0.3% |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 0.3% |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 0.1% |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 0.3% |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 0.1% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 0.3% |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 0.3% |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 0.3% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 0.1% |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 0.1% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 0.3% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 2 | 0.3% |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 0.1% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 0.1% |
| Feb 24, 2026 | 1 | 0.1% |
Nov 19-21 alone = 69.7% of approvals this week.
Week of Apr 27, 2026 - 213 cases approved
Median LBA: Nov 21, 2025 · Median wait: 157 days
| LBA date | Cases | % of week |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 0.9% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 11 | 5.2% |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 0.5% |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2 | 0.9% |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 17 | 8.0% |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 9 | 4.2% |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 13 | 6.1% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 69 | 32.4% |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 35 | 16.4% |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 4 | 1.9% |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 3 | 1.4% |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 0.9% |
| Nov 27, 2025 | 1 | 0.5% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 6 | 2.8% |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 6 | 2.8% |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 4 | 1.9% |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 0.9% |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 0.5% |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 0.9% |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 0.5% |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 0.5% |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 1 | 0.5% |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 0.9% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 1 | 0.5% |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 1 | 0.5% |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 0.5% |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 1.4% |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 0.5% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 0.9% |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 0.9% |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 0.5% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 0.5% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 0.5% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 0.5% |
| Feb 17, 2026 | 1 | 0.5% |
| Feb 24, 2026 | 1 | 0.5% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 0.5% |
Week of May 4, 2026 - 285 cases approved
Median LBA: Nov 29, 2025 · Median wait: 157 days
| LBA date | Cases | % of week |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2025 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Jul 10, 2025 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Oct 6, 2025 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 3 | 1.1% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 20 | 7.0% |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 19 | 6.7% |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 1.1% |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 0.7% |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 6 | 2.1% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 17 | 6.0% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 4 | 1.4% |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 0.7% |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 5 | 1.8% |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 4 | 1.4% |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 1.1% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 2 | 0.7% |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 7 | 2.5% |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 0.7% |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Nov 27, 2025 | 3 | 1.1% |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 21 | 7.4% |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 26 | 9.1% |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 10 | 3.5% |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 0.7% |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 5 | 1.8% |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 4 | 1.4% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 5 | 1.8% |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 24 | 8.4% |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 35 | 12.3% |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 3 | 1.1% |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 1.1% |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 1.1% |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 0.7% |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 0.7% |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 1.1% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 0.7% |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 5 | 1.8% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 1.1% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 3 | 1.1% |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Feb 19, 2026 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | 1 | 0.4% |
A few notes on these tables:
The bolded rows are the LBA dates that dominated each week. You can see the frontier shifting forward: Nov 19–21 → Nov 21–22 → Nov 28–29 + Dec 8–9.
Sample sizes are smaller for the most recent two weeks (213 and 285 cases vs. ~779 the prior week). That's a data collection limitation on my end, not a USCIS slowdown. Percentages still reflect what happened.
A few far-out LBA dates appear in each week (Jun 2025, Apr 2026, etc.) these are likely cases that got stuck somewhere, were expedited, or had a status re-trigger. They are not representative of normal queue movement and shouldn't be used to extrapolate "I should be approved soon" if your LBA is months ahead of the frontier.
How the calculator works (same as before, slightly tweaked)
Imagine USCIS is a very slow deli counter. Right now they're calling ticket number "Nov 29, 2025." That's the submission date currently being approved.
If your submission date was Jan 5, 2026, you're 37 numbers down the line. At ~2.5 numbers called per week, that's ~15 weeks of waiting before they reach your ticket. That puts you around mid-August 2026.
That's all the calculator does:
- It looks at where the "deli counter" is right now (Nov 29)
- It figures out how far ahead of that your submission date is
- It divides by how fast the counter is moving (~2.5 days/week)
- It tells you which week your batch should get called
It does the same thing in reverse for the "when should I submit?" mode works backwards from your card expiration date to tell you what submission date should still get approved in time.
Why "current median wait time = your wait" is wrong
If you've seen people say "the wait is 157 days, so add 157 days to your submission date" that math only works for people who submitted around Nov 29, 2025. Anyone who submitted later than that is going to wait longer, because the line keeps growing.
The calculator does NOT just add 157 days to your date. It estimates how long it'll take USCIS to get to your specific submission date based on how fast they've been moving.
Use this with a grain of salt
This calculator is still not perfect. It's now based on 12 weeks of data better than 10, still not a huge sample. The estimates assume USCIS keeps moving at the same pace they've been moving, which might not happen. They could speed up (the last 3 weeks suggest this might be starting), slow down, deal with holidays, change priorities any of that breaks the math.
It's the best I can do with what we have. As more weeks pass, I'll keep updating it.
Privacy
This calculator doesn't log anything. There's no database, no tracking, no analytics on submissions. You don't enter a receipt number, your name, your A-number, or anything personally identifying all it asks for is a date. The whole thing runs locally in your browser.
If you don't trust me on that, the source code is public on GitHub you can read every line yourself: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator
Thanks
Genuinely thank you to everyone who's been following along, leaving feedback, asking questions, and pointing out where the math could be better. The last post got a ton of useful comments and made this version meaningfully better. I'll keep updating as more weeks of data come in.
Calculator: https://catchingexcalibur.github.io/approval_calculator/
Source code: https://github.com/CatchingExcalibur/approval_calculator
