Hey traders, anyone who followed my HPE thesis — how’s it going for you so far?

I’d genuinely love to hear if anyone here took the trade.

I’m still holding my common shares, and today I also added HPE $31 calls (Aug 21 expiry) to increase exposure into the next phase of the move.

My current working thesis?
I think $38 is achievable (BOFA also recently raised their target there), but as always… markets don’t move on targets alone. they move on narrative, momentum, and execution.

So we’ll see how the story evolves.

About two months ago, I posted my original HPE thesis.

Original entry: $23.22

HPE today: ~$32

That’s roughly a +37% move on shares, and what’s interesting is that the thesis didn’t just work…

it actually evolved into something stronger.

Original thesis

This wasn’t a random AI momentum chase.

While everyone was piling into NVDA / SMCI / hyperscaler names, I was looking for a laggard inside the broader AI infrastructure ecosystem.

What stood out:

• Tight multi-week consolidation
• Higher lows forming
• Quiet volume accumulation
• Clean breakout setup
• Sector rotation into second-wave AI infrastructure

The structure looked textbook:

Accumulation → Breakout → Expansion

The trigger was clear:

once HPE cleared the $23–24 resistance zone, the setup confirmed.

That’s where conviction came from.

Not before.

What changed since then

This is where it gets interesting.

The original thesis didn’t break.

It got stronger.

1) Activist pressure entered the story

Now we have:

• Elliott Management
• Irenic Capital

taking positions / applying pressure.

That changes perception dramatically.

This is no longer just:

“boring enterprise hardware.”

Now the market starts asking:

Is there unlocked shareholder value here?

That’s a major catalyst.

2) The Juniper acquisition changed the company profile

The $14B Juniper acquisition was a huge strategic shift.

HPE is no longer viewed purely as legacy enterprise infrastructure.

Now the story includes:

• networking
• AI data center infrastructure
• enterprise compute
• broader AI ecosystem exposure

That matters for rerating.

3) Analysts started repricing the stock

Bank of America moved their target to $38.

Other analysts have also become more constructive.

Whether price gets there or not isn’t the point.

The point is:

institutional narrative is changing.

Technical update

The old breakout thesis played out almost exactly as expected.

Back then:

base → breakout setup

Now:

full trend expansion.

Current technical structure:

• higher highs
• higher lows
• breakout above long-term resistance
• clean trend structure
• strong moving average alignment
• momentum still intact

Yes, short-term it looks extended.

But structurally?

Still bullish.

Position update

I’m still holding common shares.

Today I added:

HPE $31 Calls (Aug 21 expiry)

Why?

Because I think there’s still room if:

• earnings hype builds
• activist pressure continues
• AI infra narrative expands
• momentum funds keep rotating in

That said:

I’m managing this as a trade.

Not marrying the position.

Biggest lesson

The biggest money usually isn’t made chasing obvious names after everyone agrees.

It’s made by finding quality setups before the narrative fully matures.

Everyone wanted the next NVDA.

Sometimes the better trade is:

the second-wave AI infrastructure name nobody was watching.

Curious if anyone else here has been in HPE or sees similar setups developing elsewhere.

I’ve been following SoFi ($SOFI) for roughly the last 12 months, watching how the market narrative around the company has constantly shifted.

After reviewing this latest earnings report, I still see several important things worth monitoring.

• Revenue grew 43% YoY, surpassing $1.1B.

• EPS came in positive again, and management maintained strong 2026 guidance.

• Deposits are now above $40B, which is important because it lowers funding costs and strengthens the banking model.

• Loan originations continue growing aggressively.

But honestly, I think the real debate around SOFI is still not fully resolved.

For more than a year, a meaningful part of the market has maintained short positions against the stock, mainly because many believe:

• The rapid growth in personal loans could eventually hurt credit quality.

• If the economy weakens, defaults could rise.

• The business model still hasn’t been fully tested through a difficult economic cycle.

And in fact, while credit metrics still appear relatively controlled, charge-offs did increase sequentially from the prior quarter. That helps explain why many shorts still haven’t disappeared.

On the other hand, there are also things the market can no longer ignore:

• SOFI no longer looks like just a speculative fintech.

• It now has massive deposits, positive profitability, and a structure that increasingly resembles a real digital bank.

• It also continues expanding members, products, and its financial ecosystem.

What’s interesting is that the stock has traded mostly sideways for quite a while, roughly between $10 and $32 over the last year, and more recently closer to the $16–20 range.

Even after this latest report, it still doesn’t look like institutions are aggressively chasing the stock higher. The market seems to still want more evidence that this growth is truly sustainable.

Personally, I’m not posting this as financial advice or as a bullish or bearish call.

I’m simply continuing to observe how the story evolves, because I think SOFI’s future ultimately comes down to one key question:

Is the company building a scalable and profitable digital bank… or simply expanding credit risk too aggressively?

That question will probably determine where this stock trades over the next several years.

Curious to hear how others are viewing SOFI at this stage.