There are a ton of different ways to look at draft capital, and I know it's been done before. Really, it all depends on how you define hit vs miss, because that's what's going to determine if WRs drafted in the first round have a weighted coin flip for success rates, or more like a good collegiate basketball free-throw shooter. Have no fear, I do go into what I used for that threshold, so that way you can determine for yourself how you'd change it.
This is on the longer side, so if you want the tl;dr, that's at the end for you. But before you go spending that 2nd round rookie pick on a 6th round RB because you like his landing spot - please read this, I beg of you. Just know what you're actually signing up for.
What Your Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Pick Actually Buys You