I track market breadth across NSE/BSE as part of my own process. Sharing the April 2026 data because the divergence between short-term and long-term signals is the largest I've seen since 2020.
The data (16 trading days into April):
Advance rate by company size:
- Large cap: 92.5% of stocks advancing | avg +12.5% MTD
- Mid cap: 97.4% of stocks advancing | avg +16.3% MTD
- Small cap: 96.5% of stocks advancing | avg +20.1% MTD
Long-term trend (10-month uptrend, March 2026 close):
- Large cap: ~25% of stocks in real uptrend
- Mid cap: ~9% of stocks in real uptrend
- Small cap: ~4% of stocks in real uptrend
The interpretation problem:
Advance rate measures "is the stock up MTD?" a daily/monthly noise signal.
Long-term breadth measures "is the stock above its 10-month moving average AND has structural momentum?" a trend signal.
Both are valid. They mean different things.
In April, the bounce is broad (95%+ advancing across all sizes). The structural repair is narrow (only ~25% of large caps qualify, ~4% of small caps).
Why this matters:
Late-stage corrections often produce a "dash for trash" rally where the most damaged segments bounce hardest in % terms because they're working off the lowest base. This is what we're seeing in small caps (+20% MTD avg). The structural breadth tells us the same names that bounced are still 30-60% off their highs and need months of sustained accumulation to repair the trend.
Open questions for the community:
How do you reconcile MTD advance rate with longer-timeframe breadth signals in your own process?
At what long-term breadth level (10W, 30W, 55W) do you consider a small cap allocation "safe to add"?
Have you seen similar divergences in 2020 / 2023 / 2014 — and how did they resolve?
I'll be in the comments.