u/Blevanhoval

[Hayes] Slumping Royce Lewis can’t help but be concerned about his Twins future

[Hayes] Slumping Royce Lewis can’t help but be concerned about his Twins future

“It can be really hard when you feel like your career is going in a different direction,” Lewis said. “It’s been tougher because obviously we know there’s always someone on your tail. There’s always someone ready to take your next job. Every day I’m here fighting and working as hard as I can to show that I’m giving it my all to keep my job because I love what I do. I’ve been smiling. I feel fine leaving the game. But I think what scares me most is like, ‘Oh, they might try to get me out of here.’ When I leave the field, that thought does creep into my head.”

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“It feels like people around here sometimes are waiting for me to struggle so that they can write me off officially or get me out of here,” Lewis said. “It’s the first time in my career where it’s become a business instead of playing the game that I love.”

oof.

nytimes.com
u/Blevanhoval — 6 days ago

Byron Buxton's 2017 season was historic.

Since Outs Above Average (OAA) started to be recorded in the Statcast Era (2016), no outfielder has surpassed Buxton's mark of 27 OAA. Although Pete Crow-Armstrong came close last year at 24, and he may very well break it this year as he already has 8 leading into May.

But for the time being, Buck's 2017 season remains both one of the finest defensive seasons of all time and arguably the greatest outfield defensive season of the past decade.

But how'd he do it?

Buxton's "Jump" in 2017
A "jump" is defined by Statcast as: How many feet did he cover in the right direction in the first three seconds after pitch release?

To break that down, Statcast looks at three distinct areas of the "jump"

1.) Reaction time
2.) Burst (or acceleration)
3.) Route efficiency

Buxton has never had a great first step. Even in 2017, he was a bit below average (ranking 54th in reaction time out of a total of 102 qualified outfielders).

But, his burst ranked 2nd. And his route efficiency was above average at 27th.

Put all that together, and you get an outfielder with the 7th best jump in baseball in 2017 in terms of feet covered against the average outfielder.

Baseball Savant and "Star" catches
One quick note: Baseball Savant defines "5-star catches" as batted balls where the probability of an out being recorded is 0 - 25%.

In 2017, Buxton led the league with 11 5-star catches.

Here's how they categorize the remaining stars:

4-star (26-50%)
3-star (51-75%)
2-star (76-90%)
1-star (91-95%)

When determining the probability of a catch, Statcast consider opportunity time, distance needed and direction.

So... let's take a quick trip down memory lane. I've also named each catch simply after the batter followed by the catch probability.

“The Catch”
Perhaps no catch in Buxton's entire career better exemplifies his willingness to put his body on the line in service of helping out his pitcher (and the sweet, sweet feeling of robbing your opponent of what should have been extra bases).

Carlos Santana - 15%

Season-saving grab
In the middle of an unexpected Wild Card hunt, the Twins found themselves in a close game
vs division rival Cleveland. Down 6-4 in the top of the 8^(th), Dozier hit an opposite field 3-run bomb to take the lead. In the bottom of the inning, a scorching gapper off the bat of Jason Kipnis had extra bases written all over it. Until Buxton flew in to save the day.

Jason Kipnis - 10%

The best of the rest
Here’s the rest of Buxton’s 5-star catches from 2017. It’s a combination of spectacular diving grabs, as well as others that appear fairly innocuous thanks to Buxton’s speed. In some instances, he even nearly outruns the ball (the Smoak one in particular looks extremely pedestrian).

Justin Smoak – 10%
Cody Asche – 10%
Leury Garcia – 15%
Salvador Perez – 20%
Yunel Escobar – 20%
Kyle Seager – 20%
Nick Castellanos – 20%
Alex Gordon – 25%
Carlos Gonzalez – 25%

I’m not sure the math is mathing on these
Funny enough, perhaps my favorite of all of Buxton’s highlight reel web gems is a catch that Statcast measured as a measly 2-star play. It’s hard to tell how good his jump is in the clip, but the route itself does not appear to be all that poor. Despite the high catch odds, the result is, at least for my money, his most aesthetically pleasing catch to date. (and the Khris Davis 3-star robbery ain’t too shabby either)

Rob Refsnyder – 80%
Khris Davis – 65%

He had us in the first half, not gonna lie
This is the result of an unstoppable object (a 110 MPH line drive with wicked tail) vs. an immovable force (Buxton's sheer desire to rob players of base hits).

Miguel Cabrera – 65%

Nearly had it
Is it possible to be impressed by a non-catch? Here are 3 instances of Buxton getting his glove on the ball for plays that he was given a 5% chance at snagging. The Braun one in particular would have been Buxton’s best catch off all time and I’m not sure it would particularly close (in my opinion).

Ryan Braun – 5%
Trey Mancini – 5%
Deven Marrero – 5%

Over the years
And here’s some of Buck’s finest web gems since 2015.

Jose Rondon – 5% (2019)
Billy McKinney – 5% (2019)
Cedric Mullins - 15% (2025)
David Dahl – 20% (2021)
Marcus Semien – 20% (2022)
Jose Iglesias - 20% (2016)
Andrew Benintendi - 25% (2021)
Teoscar Hernandez - 30% (2024)
Matt Olson – 30% (2021)
Kevin Newman – 30% (2021)
Marcus Semien - 35% (2026)
Luis Rengifo – 50% (2022)
Melky Cabrera - 55% (2016)
Steven Kwan - 60% (2025)

This was a long-winded post when what I basically am trying to say is God Bless Byron Buxton and his glove.

All info was pulled from baseball savant.

u/Blevanhoval — 13 days ago

ERA — #27

xERA — #28

xFIP — #26

Strikeout rate — #28

AVG against — #30

Win Probability Added — #28

This is what it looks like when you trade essentially the entire bullpen at the deadline and do almost nothing to rebuild it.

u/Blevanhoval — 14 days ago