u/Blamurai

TLDR

• Q3 earnings was bad, but not disastrous. missed modestly across the board: revenue $43.7M vs $45-50M expected, EPS $0.12 vs $0.16, guidance lower
• BUT they raised the dividend 11% and cash increased from $10.2M to $12.5M.
• Stock gapped down $5 but has been extremely flat for the entire day, signaling a strong buy wall either from the company’s buyback program, Sudbury, or longs in general AND shorts are very hesitant of trying to break that wall
• Short data still extreme after earnings. CTB on average is around 96% today on new borrows. Availability at 2%. SI barely changed
• So? The binary earnings squeeze is no more, but a mild-moderate rebound seems likely and a slower squeeze is possible over the next few weeks if the $5 floor holds. Shorts paying 90% APR cannot wait long

Diving into the short data

Going into earnings, the data looked like this:

https://preview.redd.it/sq9e9g8rlszg1.png?width=3830&format=png&auto=webp&s=7aec35abf92624940b2c2fb2001e7c85ba3f24f8

Those numbers were already extreme. You'd expect bears to take profits, SI and CTB to drop, and higher availability after the bad call. But based on the live data that didn’t happen. Today CTB actually doubled

https://preview.redd.it/5vpke8m2mszg1.png?width=3793&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b1d54c15dcab6fcda640cf9e80913fa9fb6a5b3

• CTB Average today: 94.2%
• CTB Max today: 266.7% lmao
• Only 54k shares covered

So I’m left wondering what the shorts are thinking. If they’re willing to enter at 90-260% APR they have a lot of conviction the stock will lower a lot immediately after earnings over the next few weeks. They need about a 10%+ further drop in 30 days just to cover the interest. So shorts really believe the stock has a lot more downside, or they know something we don’t. And since not a lot of shorts were covered, the existing shorts think so too.

Price action

You would think after a bad earnings on a stock that also has a crapton of shorts would be very volatile, but for most of the day, it moved only for 1-2 cents. I don’t think I’ve ever seen any other stock movements as flat as LFVN today, even on 3x avg volume. Whatever the reason, there's clearly demand at $5 and shorts can't easily push lower without first eating through that demand.

So is the squeeze still possible?

Yes, but with different mechanics. There’s no more binary catalyst but the CTB by itself is so insane that it can do most of the work. Imagine paying a 90-200% APR on your credit card. Fk that, at least us poors have BNPL. Unless these shorts are degenerate individuals, they can’t really justify holding that position on a managed fund for that long. So if the price holds steady, at the very least our bags get lighter as they unwind, even without a squeeze. And if it does squeeze, it probably won’t be as explosive, but rather happen over a few weeks. Also, if CTB stays elevated, the earlier shorts who got in a "low" interest rate, will eventually get their CTB re-rated higher.

What needs to happen for this to work

• $5 floor needs to hold. If it gets to 4-4.50 from longs selling, probably no squeeze
• CTB needs to stay high
• Availability needs to stay low.
• No bad news drops

The play, if you’re not already traumatized

• Buy June calls. $5 is safer than $7.5 since the price could just slowly rise over a longer period of time
• Sell CSPs or CCs
• Don’t enter. The stock is still an MLM company that had bad earnings

I got lucky and sold some calls and DITM CCs yesterday so I’m not bleeding too bad and so I double-downed on June calls. I'm eager to see if shorts are clowns for paying 100% interest to short or me for doubling-down. Sorry for those that got burned, gl to those that enter.

NFA

Edit: LFVN in title

TLDR

• LifeVantage is a $65M-cap MLM nutraceutical company that got crushed when their MindBody GLP-1 product cratered after pharma GLP-1 (Wegovy/Zepbound) became more accessible
• The stock fell from $15 to $4 over a year, but the bear thesis is largely priced in at this point.
• Short data is compelling: SI is around ~36-46% of float, DTC is over 20 days, and the cost-to-borrow went from 2% to 26% in a little over a month. Available shares to short: 0.49% of float.
• New CEO Terrence Moorehead starts later this summer. He took Nature's Sunshine, another nutraceutical MLM company from $370M revenue and ~$25M EBITDA to $450M and ~$72M EBITDA.
• Insider Dayton Judd has been buying directly in the open market at $4.50-4.65
• Q3 earnings May 6 could start/accelerate a squeeze, or kill it.

What does this company do?

LifeVantage sells a variety of supplements through an MLM model. Main one is Protandim, a herbal blend for oxidative-stress. Others include: TrueScience (skincare), AXIO (energy drinks), Petandim (for dogs, lol), and a bunch of other supplements. The two products that matter for this thesis are MindBody GLP-1 and LoveBiome:

• MindBody GLP-1 System: launched October 2024 right when everyone wanted GLP-1 access but couldn't afford Wegovy. It claims to elevate your body's own GLP-1 production. This was the home-run product that pushed Q2 FY25 revenue to $67.8M and the stock to $15. Then big pharma increased its supply and dropped pricing, crushing demand for MindBody.
• LoveBiome which they just bought in October 2025 for $3.7M. It contributed $4.1M in its first full quarter

Roughly 70% of revenue comes from auto-ship subscription with most of it coming from the Americas, and Asia (mainly Japan)

Why is the stock in the dumps? The short thesis

Three things hit at once over the last 6 months

• Their GLP1 is dying. Revenue down 27.8% YoY, and gross margin fell from 80.5% to 74%. Management cut 2026 guidance from $225-240M revenue down to $185-200M.
• CEO Steve Fife announced retirement on the same Feb 4 earnings call. Stock dropped from $5.55 → $4.20. Fife stays through April 30. Then we have Mike Beindorff as interim CEO for until Moorehead starts on Aug 5. Four months without a real CEO during a turnaround. Not great
• They filed a $75M S-3 mixed shelf on March 10 aka dilution sometime sooner or later

 

Why I think the bottom is (probably) in

The Moorehead hire is legit

Terrence Moorehead CEO hire. He was CEO of Nature's Sunshine (NATR) from 2018 through 2025. Under his watch:

• Revenue went up 22%
• Adj. EBITDA went up 190%
• EBITDA margin went from 7% to 16%
• And he did this in MLM. Same channel, same headwinds, same regulatory environment. He’s the right pick for the job

His comp package is also revealing: base $850K, $2.8M time-based RSUs, and $4.7M in performance share units tied to revenue and EBITDA margin. To me, that shows alignment and conviction

The Sudbury insider buys

Dayton Judd runs Sudbury Capital, which holds ~830K shares (~6.5% of LFVN). He's also a director. In Feb-Mar, he bought 33k shares at $4.51-$4.65, so about $152K out of his own pocket. In 2023, this guy ran a proxy fight against this company in 2023 so he’s not inherently a friendly insider. He's a value-activist

New dividend and $60M buyback

On the on the last call, they announced a $0.045 quarterly dividend (3.5% yield) AND a $60M buyback. Tbh most likely they won’t use the full buyback but the dividend matters. Management is trying to signal they believe in a turnaround.

The core business is still profitable

This is the part that bears miss. Even without including MindBody and LoveBiome, and their other products got ~$170M revenue at 78%+ gross margin. They have no debt, $10M cash, an untapped revolving credit line, and positive operating cash flow.

At a $65M market cap on $185-200M of guided revenue, you're paying 0.33x EV/Revenue. The MLM median (Herbalife, Nu Skin, Usana, Nature's Sunshine) is about 0.65x. Even applying a 50% peer discount for their issues, fair value still comes out to $5.50-6.50 where it’s at right now. So the stock is roughly fairly priced without factoring a potential turnaround.

The short setup

Official FINRA numbers

SI has been pretty stable up until 4/15. DTC is higher mainly bc of volume lowering. However after 4/15...

Ortex data for the last month

There’s been a recent uptick in SI as shown by Ortex, but the notable data is the higher CTB and lower available shares to short in the last week. Entering short positions while the interest fee is 26% implies they’re playing May earnings rather than holding long-term. Available shares to short is not even 0.5%, so it’s going to be very difficult to enter new short positions unless current shorts cover first.

There’s a big discrepancy between the official and Ortex’s free float percentage where FINRA April 15th SI % is about 35% while Ortex shows 46%. The difference is from the increased SI and because Ortex’s methodology excludes non-lendable holders from the free float which I think is more accurate.

Risks

• Q3 prints another big miss. I think there’s a higher chance it doesn’t miss, but it’s still kind of a toss-up. Important factors include how their GLP-1 product and LoveBiome are doing
• They actually tap the S-3 shelf before earnings. This is unlikely bc they have no immediate cash need and they are less likely to do it now with a depressed price unless they know their next earnings is really fkn ugly
• This stock isn’t as popular as bigger names like CAR

The play

Buy shares/calls, hoping to catch additional price increases / short covering up until May earnings and sell some/all before then to de-risk. Hold past earnings for higher risk/reward.

Positions

100 May 15 $7.5 calls. Might add more depending on price action and SI data

NFA, don’t bet the farm.