So what this estimate of my future monthly retirement benefits is saying is that the monthly payment I will receive at age 70 is $2747 in today's dollars?
Meaning that the actual monthly check I should expect in 16 years will say something like (1.02^16) x 2747 = $3,770 ?
TLDR: 54yo, $1.7M Portfolio, $70k spend, afraid to retire at a market peak.
I’ve been looking forward to retirement for years, but now that I’m at the finish line, I can’t stop looking at the Shiller CAPE ratio. It's somewhere around 37, which is effectively the 99th percentile of historical valuations. The only time it was really higher was the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000.
I’m fretting about "sequence of returns risk" and the feeling that I'm potentially jumping off a cliff right at the market's absolute "nosebleed" highs.
The Numbers:
The Fear: If we have a "lost decade" or a Japan-style multi-decade stagnation starting now, a 4%+ withdrawal rate feels incredibly aggressive. My models show me potentially running out of money in my 80s if the market does a mean reversion in the next few years.
I’m considering "One More Year" (or two) just to build a larger cash/bond buffer or let valuations cool off, but I’m also tired of the grind.
Another possibility is that I might retire and live overseas for ~10 years to help keep that $70k spending number realistic.
Questions for the community:
Appreciate any sanity checks.
