The Exit polls are giving clear edge to BJP in Bengal giving them 150-200 seats depending on exit poll. Some might argue, that exit polls last time as well showed BJP winning, however, TMC won handsomely last year. In my opinion this might not be the case this time and the BJP is expected to win more than what is shown in exit polls. The reasons are as mentioned:
- Last time there was no SIR and the fake votes would never come as a part of exit polls, hence there were close to 10% votes (sir removed), which were not accounted for in exit polls. This was the vote share difference as well last time between BJP and TMC. Not saying all SIR removed votes were casted for TMC, however, it would have made some difference.
- Last time a lot of people did not come out because of fear, and less police personnel involved. This time people came out openly and voted. The increased poll percentage shows the trend. The increased votes are mostly for BJP as these people might not have voted last time. Also, in case there are new voters, then young voters are already with BJP as per various surveys conducted, which is again advantage BJP
- There are many people who are fearing not to participate in Exit polls, fearing violence against them. These are anyways BJP voters. The reason why Axis My India is not able to come out with the survey because of voters not ready to speak in itself shows there are many pro BJP votes
The real results will come tomorrow, however, the indications are in favor of BJP and in my understanding (limited that may be), BJP might get around 170-200 seats.