I had the opportunity to move abroad twice to the same country, and around the period of early 2010s, when I was abroad, I started to come to a prognosis about Singapore's future. At that time, Singapore had done the LHL way of importing foreigners to artificially make the population grow unnaturally (I call it his population Ponzi scheme) for more than a decade, closer to one and a half decade. At the time, I saw the writing on the wall. Contrary to the bullish outlook everyone had from the government's propaganda targeted at foreigners, but locals swallowed readily, I felt Singapore has a bleak outlook, for several reasons.
The former PM's idea for growth was based on one thing - increasing the GDP by increasing the population. This isn't new, like the sandwich, he certainly didn't invent it. He just copied it from the hundreds of other empires, civilizations, and countries that have existed before him. Filling up the continent with people was literally how the US came into existence constitutionally as a nation-state and rose to power. But the difference is Singapore is very small. It's just a very small island about double the size of Maldives but 10x the population, there is a limit to the enlargement through land reclamation and delaying the inevitable will do. So I wonder how long can the growth by brute adding of population can go? At some point, they have to stop. It got really dystopian when I started seeing comments from Singaporeans jesting about how they think they will be forced to live underground in future like ninja turtles. What kind of social mobility prospects do you think your next generation have? What do you think are the chances of your next generation to afford 1. private housing 2. car? Both which were very easily scaled by every generation that managed to buy in before 2010. What about subsequent generations after that?
Singaporeans are stuck with only a small piece of area to build, without the ability to move to another part of the country. That was actually the biggest takeaway I learned from living abroad. I don't expect people who haven't lived outside Singapore to know this (though miraculously a few do), because I only learned it after I got out. The job market size is only that big. Singaporeans don't realize being stuck in a very small country isn't just about having no ability to relocate for retirement, for school, for fun, for whatever, but work opportunities are real bad because the size of your country's total area and wealth, is also its employment market. Someone in Louisiana can move to anywhere else in the US for jobs without having to have a visa, in fact that's exactly what happens. People get offers of job from all 50 states all the time. Recruitment agencies in the US cast their nets nationwide. Otherwise when they apply for job, if they are open to relocating they look out near and far all the time, get the job then can pack up and go! In fact they move to anywhere they want they have freedom of movement, don't even need a job because they don't need a visa. Americans move for all kinds of frivolous reasons (not just the key milestones of college, work, parenthood, retirement). Some even move for the weather, the landscapes or politics they like more! And all countries prioritize their own people so Singaporeans who aspire to move abroad effectively are competing with the whole world, and only after the country's own people don't get the job then they'll maybe look at your resume. Where can Singaporeans move to to live? The passport power is just that. Feel good gu-sai for the gullible simpletons to lap up.
The leadership of the country has been getting worse and worse in caliber. As the basic framework of the institutions have been set up, and all the subsequent leadership only have to do is just autopilot, so the decline of the country caused by the decline in leadership is prob slower than the natural decline caused by end of potential. The caliber of people who ran after the 2011 election onward has declined so drastically that I seriously am pessimistic about the future of Singapore. For reference sake, 2011 was the election that fielded Lawrence Wong, Chan Chun Sing, Hang See Keat.. it went to the pits in 2015 and seriously downhill since. 2015, 2020, 2025, the candidates got worse and worse! I have my doubts this crew at their level of caliber can keep the ship afloat long term. And since they haven't liberalized politics to encourage a ready alternative to take over, that is a risk to be taken seriously.
I value how Singapore has no natural disaster but not compelling enough to beat the bad points because no matter how natural disaster-less, if I stay put me and my descendants would forever be within and circulating in that small area whereas in other countries, it goes by odds of 0.0001% maybe your home will be in the disaster zone when one hits. The issues of overly high cost of living for a subpar standard of living, increasing competitiveness and people driven to be more and more materialistic have only gotten worse since I got my 'revelation'.
Recently, I started seeing calls of people who openly expressed on the Internet their desire for the ability to live and work in other countries, begging the authorities to come up with a freedom of movement agreement. I don't think such sentiments being openly said out ever happened before and I spend a lot of time online! One with Malaysia, one with New Zealand. Are things getting unbearable to the brink already? How much to go? I get the sense that Singapore is reaching its boiling point, as its run out of land, real estate and car prices out of control and social mobility looks hopeless.