u/BadBoyBrando

[Self-Promotion] Aggregating Prediction Market Data for Investor Insights

Implied Data helps investors make sense of prediction markets. We transform live market odds on stocks, earnings, and major events into structured dashboards that show what the crowd expects, what could change the view, and where the strongest signals are emerging.

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u/BadBoyBrando — 18 hours ago

▲ 7 r/dataisbeautiful+3 crossposts

Earnings Season Baaaabbbyyyy

Built this visual using prediction market data on upcoming bank earnings.

Y-axis = implied probability of beating earnings expectations
X-axis = liquidity backing that view

The basic idea: high probability is more interesting when there’s also decent liquidity behind it. That helps separate stronger signals from thinner, noisier markets.

A few things that stood out to me:

JPM looks like the clearest high-probability / high-liquidity name
GS and Morgan Stanley also screen well, though with a bit less liquidity
Some names show decent beat odds, but not as much capital behind the view
Citi / M&T / WF look favorable on probability, but less compelling than the top-right names if you care about signal strength

Any thoughts?

u/BadBoyBrando — 19 hours ago