u/AsunaYuuki837373

SK Wednesday Update: Michael seems to be on track for 700k admits 5-day opening weekend, maybe a finish around 2 million admits

SK Wednesday Update: Michael seems to be on track for 700k admits 5-day opening weekend, maybe a finish around 2 million admits

Movies Monday-Monday Drop Tuesday-Tuesday Drop Wednesday-Wednesday Drop Thursday-Thursday Drop Friday-Friday Drop Saturday-Saturday Drop Sunday-Sunday Drop Week-Week Drop
Super Mario Galaxy 95% 98% 51%
Devil Wears Prada 2 75% 82% 16%
Salmokji 85% 88% 22%
Project Hail Mary 74% 76% 25%
The Man Who Lives With the King 68% 64% +43%

Michael: A decent opening day, and good news is that presales have increased to 123k tickets. Scores are good to mix as the CGV egg score is a respectable 94, but Megabox is kinda on the fine side at 8.8 currently. Legs will be interesting as Megabox is generally the best indicator of legs, but we will wait and see. Currently, I am thinking 700k admits for the 5-day opening weekend, and maybe a finish around 1.8 million admits

Super Mario Galaxy: The movie finally can catch its breath, as it had a fine enough drop to keep pushing for a decent weekend. Presales have climbed to 18k, so I am expecting a decent hold this weekend to push the movie close to 1.45 million admits by Sunday.

Devil Wears Prada 2: A good day, as the movie missed on 1.3 million admits by just a couple of hundred tickets. Honestly, great sign that the movie can survive Michael.

Salmokji: Okie, maybe it will just cross 21 million dollars today as the movie will still look to cross 3.1 million admits this weekend as the movie continues to display great legs on a horror flick.

Project Hail Mary: The movie is north of 2.8 million admits, as the movie is still hanging around the top 5. Maybe it is time to put 3 million admits in the realm of possibilities, especially as the movie is having insane drops.

The Man Who Lives With the King: I believe that 16.9 million admits is clearly possible and is becoming more likely thanks to some excellent late legs.

u/AsunaYuuki837373 — 22 hours ago

SK Tuesday Update: Michael Presales has lackluster finish

Movies Monday-Monday Drop Tuesday-Tuesday Drop Wednesday-Wednesday Drop Thursday-Thursday Drop Friday-Friday Drop Saturday-Saturday Drop Sunday-Sunday Drop Week-Week Drop
Super Mario Galaxy 95% 98%
Devil Wears Prada 2 75% 82%
Salmokji 85% 88%
Project Hail Mary 74% 76%
The Man Who Lives With the King 68% 64%

Super Mario Galaxy: The movie takes another big hit as the movie continues to march towards 10 million dollars and a finish in the area of 1.6-1.7 million admits.

Devil Wears Prada 2: A decent day as the movie put up another strong weekday, as the movie is still looking to cross 1.3 million admits on Thursday or Friday on the latest.

Salmokji: This movie is still looking strong despite big drops after the holidays. The movie will try to cross 21 million dollars on Thursday.

Project Hail Mary: The movie sees a big drop as expected, as the movie will hit 2.8 million admits tomorrow. The movie is still clinging onto the top 10 in presales, but I expect the next two weeks to mark the end of the run.

The Man Who Lives With the King: Solid as the movie is inching closer to 16.9 million admits. The movie is outside of the top 15 in presales, as the movie likely has another week and a half of making numbers worth mentioning.

Presales

Michael: I don’t love the fact we missed out on 105k tickets, but just by a hair, so maybe we can have a decent opening day. I am willing to bet that opening day will be between Wicked 2 and F1 comps, so thinking 70k admits opening day.

Days before Release F1 Jurassic World Rebirth Wicked 2 Michael
28,716
T-7 44,401 11,962 77,228 33,778
T-6 48,155 16,072 86,011 38,071
T-5 53,728 23,397 95,889 46,265
T-4 58,456 36,197 108,137 52,570
T-3 66,092 52,081 127,976 63,428
T-2 81,072 86,364 155,752 79,573
T-1 103,859 151,344 192,725 103,930
Comp 82,978 103,766 58,318
u/AsunaYuuki837373 — 2 days ago

Movies Monday-Monday Drop Tuesday-Tuesday Drop Wednesday-Wednesday Drop Thursday-Thursday Drop Friday-Friday Drop Saturday-Saturday Drop Sunday-Sunday Drop Week-Week Drop
Salmokji 11% +29%
Project Hail Mary 3% +13%
The Man Who Lives With the King 30% 15%

Salmokji: Another great day for the movie as the movie will climb above 2.1 million admits tomorrow as it is eyeing a finish north of 2.5 million admits, as I said weeks ago. This movie is a huge hit for horror fans.

Project Hail Mary: The movie should easily sneak into 2.6 million admits this weekend and should have a chance for 2.8 million admits final if competition doesn’t destroy the late legs.

The Man Who Lives With the King: The movie keeps rolling towards that 16.8 to 16.9 million admits finish

Presales

Super Mario Galaxy: A meh finish as the movie seems set to open around 120k to 130k admits.

Days before Release Moana 2 Bad Guys 2 Zootopia 2 Mario Super Galaxy
T-7 42,238 8,916 73,487 35,433
T-6 51,863 9,549 94,120 45,760
T-5 64,147 14,312 113,186 58,225
T-4 79,655 7,449 141,029 69,449
T-3 105,249 11,440 182,918 88,403
T-2 150,351 18,765 258,224 115,823
T-1 224,262 34,944 370,645 155,570
Comp 136,505 184,401 129,765

Devil Wears Prada 2: A pretty wide range, I would say the key will be 160k admits as the movie should behave between F1 and Thunderbolts.

Days before Release Sinners F1 Thunderbolts Devil Wears Prada 2
T-7 2,533 44,401 16,408 61,582
T-6 2,792 48,155 42,913 71,251
T-5 3,335 53,728 49,950 83,372
T-4 4,099 58,456 56,852 94,494
T-3 5,284 66,092 66,550 114,141
T-2 7,456 81,072 83,980 142,119
T-1 9,927 103,859 107,377 186,689
Comp 197,070 149,054 174,139
u/AsunaYuuki837373 — 3 days ago

Movies Monday-Monday Drop Tuesday-Tuesday Drop Wednesday-Wednesday Drop Thursday-Thursday Drop Friday-Friday Drop Saturday-Saturday Drop Sunday-Sunday Drop Week-Week Drop
Salmokji 11%
Project Hail Mary 3%
The Man Who Lives With the King 30%

Salmokji: The movie has now hit 2 million admissions, and it should hit 2.5 million admissions; it should do well despite the competition. I will be really interested to see if it can beat out PHM.

Project Hail Mary: And that is 2.5 million admissions as we rapidly approach Wednesday, which will really determine how close to 3 million admissions this movie can reach.

The Man Who Lives With the King: A good drop as the movie is still on its way to a finish north of 16.8 million admits.

Presales

Super Mario Galaxy: Another weaker day as the movie seems to be hinting at opening day being around 120k admits.

Days before Release Moana 2 Bad Guys 2 Zootopia 2 Mario Super Galaxy
T-7 42,238 8,916 73,487 35,433
T-6 51,863 9,549 94,120 45,760
T-5 64,147 14,312 113,186 58,225
T-4 79,655 7,449 141,029 69,449
T-3 105,249 11,440 182,918 88,403
T-2 150,351 18,765 258,224 115,823
T-1 224,262 34,944 370,645
Comp 151,589 256,211 138,672

Devil Wears Prada 2: A bit below what I wanted, but still not bad as the movie should open north of 150k admits.

Days before Release Sinners F1 Thunderbolts Devil Wears Prada 2
T-7 2,533 44,401 16,408 61,582
T-6 2,792 48,155 42,913 71,251
T-5 3,335 53,728 49,950 83,372
T-4 4,099 58,456 56,852 94,494
T-3 5,284 66,092 66,550 114,141
T-2 7,456 81,072 83,980 142,119
T-1 9,927 103,859 107,377
Comp 199,740 145,362 169,498
u/AsunaYuuki837373 — 17 days ago