u/Aspen2223

Before we get into this weekend’s races, we definitely need to back “track” on last weekend’s races. Obviously, there is a lot to go over so I’ll try to make it brief…(keyword: try).

Looking back on Friday, the day started off well when Soaring High, a daughter of Curlin and two time champion and Hall of Famer Songbird, broke her maiden at almost 9/2. I thought that might have been a sign that it was going to be a good day.

However, those thoughts quickly fell by the wayside after I watched the speedy Shisospicy get outbroke at the start of the Unbridled Sidney Stakes. I knew in the first five seconds of that race, she (and I) was beat. However, I did not know she would plummet to the back of the field and finish last, beaten 11 lengths. 

On Time Girl rallied late to win the Eight Belle Stakes at 2-1, so that helped.

Then came Corporate Power, who won an all out war down the lane in the Alysheba Stakes at 5.60-1 to score by a neck. That one (along with the $52+ exacta) catapulted me into the black and I never looked back.

Skipping up a few races, Shred the Gnar, who I figured would try to take them wire to wire, wound up stalking the pace, taking over in the upper stretch and held sway at 3-1. (Tack on $28+ exacta box…I always box exactas and triple by the way). If this four year old stays healthy this year, she could have a huge year.

Imaginationthelady split horses down the lane and got up to win at 5/2 with Tam Tam, an expensive daughter of Medaglia d’Oro, grabbing second at 20-1. (Tack on a $118+ exacta box). 

Moving on to the Kentucky Oaks, in winning this prestigious race in just her third career starts, how good is Always a Runner? The answer is clearly REALLY,  REALLY good. …better than I thought. I love the story that came out afterwards. 

After working the filly one morning, jockey Jose Ortiz told trainer Chad Brown that this was “one serious filly”...to which Brown replied with a big smile and simply said “I know.”

The $1,050,000 daughter of Gun Runner came out of the race well and will now logically be pointed to the big three year old filly races at Saratoga (Coaching Club American Oaks, Alabama Stakes etc.).

Runner up Meaning ran big (capping still another exacta box at $97+) as she poked her head in front briefly at the three sixteenths pole before the winner went by her. 

The relatively inconsistent Counting Stars showed up and ran big as well, finishing third, beaten 2 ¼ lengths for all the money.

Pace setter Explora faced pace pressure every step of the way and did well to hold fourth.

Zany, who actually went off as the favorite at 5-1 (that's how wide open this race was), showed little and may need some time off from what I saw.

Percy’s Bar simply disappointed….from what I saw, she was squeezed early and was wide on the turn home but, truth be told, it more appeared to me she “bounced” off a titanic effort in the Ashland Stakes last month. 

Moving over to Saturday, I had a hard time separating Ways and Means and Splendora but R Disaster snuck up on me, wiring the field (tack on a $46.00+ exacta).

Skip up a few races to the otherworldly talented Crude Velocity, who although he looked beat in the upper stretch, gunned down the super fast Englishman in deep stretch and pulled away late to win the Pat Day Mile.  The son of first year sire Beau Liam completed a mile in a smoking 1:33.4, setting a Stakes record in the process. 

I watched the replay several times and found in the “Race within the Race” that Crude Velocity, who is not very big at all (not even 1,000 lbs?), was pretty much on cruise control all the way around the track. He has a remarkably high cruising speed early and I loved the way he “lowered” himself late.

I can’t wait to see him again and I may not have to wait long as (at this writing) his connections are contemplating a quick turn around and running back in the Preakness or waiting for the June 6th Woody Stephens Stakes at Saratoga.

One last thing I wanted to point out….Crude Velocity scored a 100 Beyer Speed Figure….Golden Tempo won the Derby with a 95.

Stark Contrast came from behind to win the American Turf at 6/5. Although Remember Mamba suffered his first defeat, he rallied from near last and was charging hard, late with that monster stride I mentioned the other day, to get second (tack on a $15.00 exacta).

The Churchill Downs Stakes, which featured a star studded field, needs to be investigated. ….The winner T O Elvis was impressive streaking down the middle of the track and winning easily. That was all well and good as the top contenders simply didn't run well. 

My problem was T O Elvis opened at 30-1 on the morning line, dropped to 12-1 as they were loading into the gate and went off at slightly less than 6-1 on the final “wave” (updated) odds. 

Do you know how much money it takes to move a horse from 30-1 to 5.87-1 in the matter of a few hours?

The answer is a boatload…like a Titanic sized boat too. Moreover, from the research I did, there was $320,000 bet on T O Elvis in the final one minute to post. That's on track only and does not include offshore betting or simulcasting betting, just the betting windows.

$320,000? in one minute? If it were one, or even two people, who were responsible for that, it would be all over the media and social media, but I didn't see one thing.

I get it…it was Kentucky Derby Day, so there was an enormous amount of money bet on every race. However, several days later, that situation still doesn't sit right with me.

Moving forward, Knightsbridge (the favorite) was too close to a hot early pace, weakened down the lane and finished off the board…..the talented Cornucopian was simply flat. Either he didn't care for the surface or he “bounced” off his monster prior performance…..It is now clear to me that Disco Time needs some time or he is “over the top” in his career……Banishing was pulled up but all reports I heard was that he was “ok.”

Lastly, just a few random thoughts on the Derby. First off, from the quarter pole to the wire (which was a little less than :26 seconds long), my brain was all over the pace. 

It went from saying “Wow, a Japanese horse is going to finally win a Kentucky Derby” (when Danon Bourbon opened up on the field in the upper stretch) to “No effing way a 30-1 maiden is going to win the Derby” (when 70-1 shot Ocelli overtook Danon Bourbon) to “Yes!...Another winner!! And wow, Into Mischief is going to sire a record fourth Derby winner” (when Renegade was absolutely rolling down the middle of the racetrack) to “ut oh, Golden Tempo is moving better” to “Wow, the first female trainer to win the Derby…good for you Cherie.”

Now about the horses and the race:

Golden Tempo (winner) ran a ridiculously good race. Yes, he had a fast pace in front of him but coming from last, while having to go 7, 8, 9 wide on the turn, was remarkable. He will now skip the Preakness and point to the Belmont Stakes. He is now the third horse in the last five years to skip the Preakness, which for an old time, traditionalist like me, is not good. I understand they are doing what is best for the horse as they should, but as a fan, it's awful. 

Renegade (second) at the five/sixteenths pole I actually said outloud “Renegade is done.” Yea right… the son of Into Mischief came running like his tail was on fire. He too ran an outstanding race. Next stop: a rematch with Golden Tempo in the Belmont Stakes.

Ocelli (third) almost pulled off an absolute shocker at 70-1 while almost winning the Derby as a maiden. …that’s insane…..next stop: Preakness?

Commandment (seventh) did not break well but was a threatening presence on the turn then faded a bit after that. No future plans were announced at this writing.

So Happy (ninth) I have no idea why he was so close to the (fast) early pace. His best game is clearly to be taken back and make one run late. He is back home in California with no immediate future plans.

Emerging Market (tenth) was making his third career start and had decent positioning most of the way but simply flatted out when the real running began. Just goes to show you, it is extremely difficult to win this race with so little experience.

Potente (twelfth) I thought he had excellent positioning all the way around but he too just flattened out late. When they straightened up for the stretch drive, I’m not sure the 5F- :57.4 work just a few days before the race might have drained him a bit. He too will skip the Preakness. 

Robusta (fourteenth) not much to say about him other than he was completely overmatched. However, I just wanted to mention, he is one huge animal. 

Belmont at the Big A
Race: 6 (3:38 PM EDT)
John A Nerud Stakes
1) Silver Slugger has won 12 of 19 in his career, including five of his last six. Any horse who can go a half in :44+ and three quarters in 1:09 flat over the quirky Tampa Bay Down surface has my respect. Lastly, on paper, this race sets up perfectly for him. 
2) I’m going to take a shot against the speedy, 7/5 morning line favorite One Nine Hundred who is in the dreaded “win one, lose one” pattern. That said, he is due to “win one.”
3) Full Moon Madness just missed in his last, but be advised, he hasn't won a horse race of any kind in almost a year now.

Race: 7 (4:09 PM EDT)
Ruffian Stakes
1) Eunomia just missed vs similar (possibly slightly better) at Keeneland in her last. Filly by Tiz the Law has shown marked improvement since being switched to the dirt surface last October.
2) Inefficiency is 2 for 2 after clobbering maidens at first asking, then coming back and blowing out a NW1x field in her last. In studying that race, this filly was moving very well while skimming over this very surface with a relatively long stride. Prat had a ton of horse at the quarter pole, tapped her once left handed in mid-stretch and she was gone. We’ll find out more about her in this spot but so far, I like what I see.
3) Irish Maxima appears to be back in top form after winning her last two by wide margins.
Also consider: Dry Powder who was completely overmatched in her last and should appreciate the drop in class here…..your longshot horse in this race is Cassiar, who hasn't really run an awful race in six career starts and beat Dry Powder last year. 

Race: 8 (4:40 PM EDT)
Take the A Train Stakes
1) Emblaze swung super wide on the turn and motored past five horses down the lane, getting the last furlong in :11.4,  to break his maiden in his debut at Tampa Bay Downs….steps up but does not appear to meet any monsters here…could take another.
2) Just Philtored has won four of seven including one on the turf. Note how her only other turf start, where she was a  close up fifth, she ran against better than these.
3) Cadenza is another morning line favorite I’m going to try to beat, even  though she has run very well (with higher Brisnets than the rest here) in all her turf and synthetic  starts.
Also consider: One More Guitar who just keeps getting better since switching to the turf…..Kingsolver has run against much better on the dirt, may not have cared for the mud last time out and, if she likes the turf, she could easily outrun this rating, 

Race: 9 (5:11 EDT)
Peter Pan Stakes
1) It took Growth Equity three times to break his maiden but when he did, he was impressive. This $425,000 son of Nyquist won by 4 ½, ran a career high 92 Brisnet Figure and stopped the clock in 1:36.3, a solid time for this surface, this time of year.
2) Talk to me Jimmy broke his maiden by 5 ½, then came back to win the Withers Stakes by a colossal margin. He then stalked a moderate pace in the oddly run Wood Memorial and yet faltered late checking in eighth. I expect a bounce back effort from him here.
3) Trendsetter dropped a bomb at 32-1 in winning the Lexington Stakes in his last…all other dirt races were very good…..could outrun this rating.

With a ton to go over on Saturday, I’ll get into what happened in the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, as well as what happened in some of the under card races, including some “Race within the Race” analysis' and, of course, some of the monetary repercussions, next week. 

Just as a heads up, between Corporate Power winning the Alysheba Stakes at 5-1 and, even though my pick in the Oaks, Percy’s Bar ran off the board, the exact box of Always a Winner and runner up Meaning, who combined for an almost $100.00 exacta, picked up the slack. 

I’ll get into it a little more next weekend but just know this, I have a very large monetary cushion for Derby Day.

Churchill Downs
Race: 4 (12:38 PM EDT)
Derby City Distaff Stakes
1) Splendora is razor sharp right now having won five in a row dating back to last year, including a pair of Grade: 1s (BC F&M Sprint & Beholder Mile).
2) Those of you who have been following me know I really like the beautiful, now five year old mare Ways and Means and it pains me to play against her here. I have to though as she hasn't run in almost a year and I’m not sure she likes Churchill Downs as she is 0 for 2 on this oval and 5 for 8 everywhere else. 
3) R Disaster is a mind-boggling 15 for 15 on the board in her career including eight wins, which could easily have been 11 wins but lost a couple of photos.
Also consider: Usha who has clearly turned the corner in her career, winning three of her last four by wide margins. The troubling part is her one trip, the one race in Kentucky, was a nightmare.

Race: 5 (1:12 PM EDT)
Twin Spires Turf Sprint
1) My Boy Prince has come from behind to win back to back Stakes races at Tampa Bay and Keeneland in his last two, signaling he is in top racing form.
2) Yellow Card was a ridiculous eight wide on the turn, yet was only 1 ½ lengths behind my top pick last time out….big threat if he duplicates that effort here and gets a better trip.
3) Litigation has won six of 11 starts and, like Yellow Card, he was so wide on the turn in that race I thought he was going to get a cheeseburger from the grandstand.
Also consider: Mondogetsbuckets  who is 0 for 3 this year but has been “right there” in all three………..Possiblemente has quietly rounded into top form while facing lesser caliber foes. However, his Brisnets are on par with some of the top contenders in this race. If you are a longshot player, this is probably your horse.

Race: 6 (1:53 PM EDT)
Knicks Go Stakes
1) Be You was just 1 ½ lengths behind 2025 champion sprinter Book ‘em Danno in the Grade: 2 Carter in his last and won the Toboggan prior to that, both in NY. He meets no “champions” here and should appreciate the drop in class.
2) What’s up with Tour Player changing barns five times in 18 months? Anyway, he’s won five of his last seven vs lesser but, more importantly, he is 4 for 5 on this racetrack and 1 for 6 everywhere else. He gets the “Horse for the Course” angle for sure.
3) Capital Idea has run well in his last six races, including almost catching the talented Grande in deep stretch in the Grade: 3 Ghostazapper Stakes last time out.
Also consider**: Dragoon Guard** has good speed and has never been worse than second in five tries on this oval. However, over the past 19 months he has consistently coughed up leads down the lane, so I simply don’t trust him fully to “finish the job” anymore.

Race: 7 (2:38 PM EDT)
Churchill Distaff Turf Mile
1) Pin Up Betty was beaten just two lengths in a Grade:1 in her 2026 debut. She should be “tighter” with a race under her belt, she should relish the drop in class and is 4 for 7 on the Churchill Turf Course and 0 for 14 away from it. Tepid pick in a well matched field.
2) Portfolio Duration buried maidens and a NW1x field in her last two starts and Prat returns to the saddle. 
3) I’m going to play against morning line favorite Sweet Rebecca, who is 5 for 8 in her career here. This mare by “AP” won her last two at Gulfstream in smoking final times for 8 ½ furlongs, including coming home the last 2 ½ furlongs in a hot  :29.3 and :29.2 seconds. My problem with her is all three ventures into Graded Stakes competitions where …well…not good.
Also consider: Temptable, who I have no idea how good she is but she is a three time winner overseas, so she gets the proverbial “dark horse” tag……..Moving On Up is relatively consistent and could land a piece of the purse.

Race: 8 (3:23 PM EDT)
Pat Day Mile
1) I found it nearly impossible to separate Crude Velocity and Englishman**,** who both have shown colossal talent levels. I’ll gingerly go with Crude Velocity, who came from behind to win both starts while running the same distance (6 ½ F) a full second faster in his second race. In case you suck at math like I do, that’s about a five length improvement. Narrowest of margins in a race that, past the Derby and Oaks, I am looking forward to the most.
2) The aforementioned Englishman has blinding speed, winning his first two starts by a combined 14 ¾ lengths while ripping through early fractions/finals times just like Crude Velocity. He draws the rail, a huge tactical advantage, and (like normal) should come out running. Obviously they will all, including Crude Velocity, have him to deal with when they turn for home.
3) Secured Freedom faced Potente and Plutarch in his last two races and wasn't embarrassed by any stretch either time. Note how he broke his maiden at this distance right after Chrstimas last year…20-1 on the morning line? I’ll take a shot.

Race: 9 (4:06 PM EDT)
American Turf Stakes
1) Stark Contrast’s first two starts of 2026 (a win and a second) should set him up very well for this assignment. This son of Caravaggio is 3 for 4 on the turf with his lone defeat coming by just three quarters of a length in none other than the BC Juvenile Turf last year.
2) Greenwich Village who was originally being set up for the Kentucky Derby, has clearly found a home on the turf, coming from behind to win both tries over it and scoring strong final times.
3) I hate to put the unbeaten Remember Mamba in the third slot as he really doesn’t deserve it. This stretch running son of the late Kitten’s Joy has a big, long stride and reaches out soooooo beautifully… with his front legs especially.  He has the prototypical turf horse’s stride. He’s got guts too as he looked hopelessly beaten at the eighth pole of last, yet somehow got up for the win.
Also consider: Final Score, who is 3 for 3 on the turf, even though he is coming off a long layoff. “*Ignore Pletcher, leave the track on a stretcher”.....*Alpyland has won 4 for 6 on the turf including a pair of Stakes races……..Your longshot horse in this race is the well named Black Hornet, who is unbeaten in two tries on the turf.

Race: 10 (4:50 PM EDT)
Churchill Downs Stakes
1) Knightsbridge has won 6 of 8 in his career, including his last four in a row by a combined 22 lengths. He could NOT have looked any more (visually) impressive decimating his rivals in the Gulfstream Park Mile last time out…hard to go against even with some crack runners in here.
2) Speaking of visually impressive, Cornucopian, a $1.1 million son of Into Mischief, was exactly that while speeding his way to a win in the San Carlos at Santa Anita last time out. This handsome colt took over on the turn, opened up on the field, stopping the clock in a 6F split of 1:07.4, before waltzing home 7F in 1:20.3. He appears to have turned the corner in his career…..dangerous foe right here.
3) Disco Time won his first five starts before faltering in the Pegasus World Cup (why was he on the lead that day anyway?) then was upset at 2/5 in the Challenger Stakes last time. Is he now “over the top” in his career or does he bounce back with a big effort here? You call from there.
Also consider: Imagination, another expensive ($1,050,000) son of Into Mischief, has also found a home sprinting. The question here is how much did that trip/win in Saudi Arabia take out of him? Judging by his recent works….not much…….Point Dume, who has won three straight including the Carter in NY,  is in career best form right now………Crazy Mason (closes and has hit the board in 14 of 19 starts) and Disruptor ($1,150,000 son of Gun Runner who has won 3 of his last 5) both rate upset chances. 

Race: 11 (5:39 PM EDT)
Old Forest Bourbon Turf Classic
1) Rhetorical probably needed his 2026 debut (third) as he had won five of his first six starts and was a close up fourth in BC Turf Mile last year….should be ready now.
2) Test Score won his second Grade: 1 when taking down the Pegasus World Cup Turf at Gulfstream in his last
3) Trading Program, like me, seems to have lost a step of late. This ridgling won three Grade:1’s in 2024 but is winless since.
Also consider: Ashbury Park who, when he is right, possesses a strong late run…..could be a menace in deep stretch here.

Race: 12 (6:57 PM EDT)
Kentucky Derby
Analysis by Post Position order, selections below

PP# 1- Renegade is a well bred, (by Into Mischief out a G3 winner Spice is Nice) $975,000 colt who possesses a strong late run. This handsome bay came home the last half furlong in less than :06 seconds (5.97) in the Sam F Davis Stakes (over the quirky Tampa Bay Down surface) and came home the last full furlong in less than :12 seconds (11.84) in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. Both of those finishing times are eye popping good….and it appears he is still getting better. I say that because I noticed a distinct difference in his stride/motion between those two races/wins (both by open lengths). He was much smoother, almost skipping across the track, in the Arkansas Derby while a little more choppier in the Sam Davis and the Beyer Speed Figures in his last three races back that up (82, 93 and 98). Now, let’s talk about the elephant in the room, the dreaded #1 post position. Those of you who know me, know whoever draws the #1 post in the Kentucky Derby is normally an automatic throw out for me. That said, there are two things that make me think twice this year. One, with the new starting gate Churchill uses, the # 1 post is not as bad as it normally is. Two, with very little early speed, this colt is clearly a late runner. You want a late runner to save ground. Well, breaking from the #1 post he will be saving ground automatically. Lastly, I am not concerned about the three quarter shoes he'll be wearing on his front feet as he won the Arkansas Derby wearing them. 

PP# 2 - Albus has been improving of late as well, highlighted by rallying from well behind to win the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in his last. That, after crushing maidens at Tampa Bay Downs in his prior race. Does he have the running style to win this race? Yes ..is he coming into the race the right way? Yes …is he “fast” enough? I don’t think so. Listen, his Wood Memorial win was his best race yet, but even in his best race, he scored an 83 Beyer Figure. That won't be nearly good enough to win this as the average Beyer Figure to win the Derby in the last five years was 102.3. 

PP# 3 - Intrepido caught a few people’s attention by winning the G1 American Pharoah Stakes last year, then flopped in the BC Juvenile. He did something similar this year as he ran big in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, then flopped in the Santa Anita Derby. So which Intrepido do we see here? I’m thinking the one that flops as he might have left his race on the training track. I mean, last Sunday he went a half in a Secretariat before the Belmont Stakes-like  :45 seconds flat, 5 furlongs in :57 and out 6 furlongs in 1:10 flat. I’ve seen this horse, he’s no Secretariat….next…

PP# 4 - Litmus Test is an $875,000 son of Nyquist who through most of the spring, trainer Bob Baffert called him his “best shot at the Derby”. I’m not sure what’s going on with him (perhaps he’s just not that good?) but he didn't really run a step in either of his 2026 races this year….pass.

PP# 5 - Commandment- if you have been following me this spring, you know I really like this well bred colt. Another by Into Mischief, out of G1 winner Sippican Harbor, they paid a half million dollars for him, but he looks like a million dollars with his on track presence. I also love the fact he is battle tested as he’s won four in a row, the first two of the four by wide margins, while the last two were absolute dog fights. ..experience like that is priceless in this cavalry charge of a race. Moreover, he draws a terrific post position for his running style and, as I mentioned the last five winners of the Derby have averaged a 102.3 Beyer Speed Figure, this colt has run a 101 and 100 respectively in his last two races. So, he is right there figures-wise. The only part that makes me hesitate is both Irad Oritz Jr and Flavien Prat, probably the two best riders in the country right now, both rode him and both chose others to ride in the race.

PP# 6 - I’m actually torn on the Japanese shipper Danon Bourbon, a $450,000 son of Maxfield. On one hand, this big, gorgeous colt is unbeaten, and by and large untested, in his career including setting a track record on a muddy track in March. Moreover, his stride/motion is not only efficient, but is also huge as he just gobbles up ground when he runs. If you haven't seen his gallop around Churchill last Monday, I suggest you watch it. He went around the track once in a spirited gallop, then cruised a second lap. When he came back (after two miles of running) he wasn’t breathing heavy enough to blow out a match. On the other hand, he is the proverbial “dark horse" in this race. Exactly how good is he? Can he come from the other side of the world with just three races under his belt and win the Kentucky Derby? Yea, Forever Young came within an inch of pulling it off, but we know he is very special. Is this colt that special? With only three races thus far, it's hard to say, but I will say this. He’s just run two races this year. Horses who have come into the Derby with two races in their 3 YO years are 1 for the last 54 …the one winner? Sovereignty last year….he broke an 0 for 53 streak. The best advice I can give you here is to watch the tote board four to five  minutes before post time for further clues. 

PP# 7 - So Happy has won three of four starts, and for a while there (and especially for who his sire is), I was thinking he was a one turn/sprinter…..wrong……he took advantage of a pretty hot pace in the Santa Anita Derby, running by the early leaders and drawing away late for the win and beating who might turn out to be a nice horse (Potente) in the process. He scored an even 100 Beyer that day, so figures-wise he fits. Now, will he get the pace and a good trip in order to make his rider the oldest rider to ever win a Kentucky Derby?

PP# 8 - The Puma has been mixing it up with the big boys and clearly holding his own. Third to Renegade, he beat Further Ado, then was a dirty nose behind Commandment in his last with his Brisnet Figures rising through each race (90, 93 and 100). He clearly belongs in this race and he has a good chance. That said, here is my problem. You have heard me talk ad nauseum about stride/motions because I’m a big fan of that. This colt does not move well to me. If you watch him from the head on, he “swims” or “paddles” with his left front leg. This expends more energy than say, Danon Bourbon, Emerging Market or several others in this race who move more efficiently.  In shorter races, it’s not necessarily a big deal, but having to “swim” 10 furlongs? That might be tough. Have others had that same habit but won big races? Yes…plenty…most recently Sierra Leone comes to mind first, the $3 million Brant is another.

PP# 9- Wonder Dean is another Japanese “dark horse”. Yes, he won the UAE Derby in his last, but had just one win in five starts prior. I’m tossing him and if he beats me, I’ll just tip my hat and move on to the Preakness.

PP# 10- If you draw a line through his Holy Bull debacle, you’ll find a serious threat in Incredibolt. If you toss that race, you see he’s been handled in text book style coming into this race. He beat maidens, won a Grade: 3 race, (both on this oval, so he is 2 for 2 here and has the oh-so-important race over this weird surface) then went to a souped up Colonial Downs surface and dominated the Virginia Derby. So the bottom line is he’s fast and he is unbeaten on this oval. However, what happened in the Holy Bull? Did he simply not care for that (speed favoring) conveyor belt they call Gulfstream Park? I mean, Colonial Downs might be more speed favoring than Gulfstream yet he blew the doors off his rivals on that track….so what gives? Did he just have a bad day? Your call from there.

PP# 11- By finishing  a neck behind Commandment in the Fountain of Youth in just his second lifetime start, it told all of us that the good looking Chief Wallabee has a world of ability. He proved that race was no fluke when he came back to only be beaten by Commandant and The Puma by a half length in the Grade:1 Florida Derby in just his third career start. As talented as he is, he is also very green as he runs with his head too high for my liking and also severely cocked to the right. Those habits will clearly not help his chances in the Derby. To counter that, trainer Bill Mott put blinkers on, and goodness gracious, he worked extremely well in them, going 5F in a minute flat, galloping out 6F in 1:12 and 7F in 1:26.1. Will adding blinkers be enough to put him over the top? It’s possible..

PP# 12 - Silent Tactic will scratch and Potente, the $2.4 million son of…you guessed it… Into Mischief will move into the #12 post. I like this drop dead gorgeous, powerfully built, bay colt quite a bit. He’s won two of his first three races and had a legitimate excuse in his lone defeat (what on earth was he doing on the lead, getting hooked in a protracted  speed duel in the Santa Anita Derby anyway?). Even running hard the whole way, I thought he held well late to finish second. He is improving too (Beyers: 79, 85, 95). I was hoping the tactics in this race were to take him back early, maybe have him 5th, 6th, 7th early then make a run late. However, based on his jaw dropping 5F work (:57.4) last Sunday, that signals to me they intend on coming out running. Again I say, I really like this horse, but with just three starts under his belt he simply doesn't look 100% ready to me and Lord knows, you need to be AT LEAST 100% ready for this race if not more.

PP# 13 - Emerging Market might be the most impressive horse I’ve seen all year. I put him right up there with the upper echelon colts of this crop in the talent department. First off, he breaks his maiden at 1 mile and 40 yards and scores a titanic 99 Brisnet and 99 Beyer over the crazy Tampa Bay Down surface. Then he comes back and wins the Grade: 2 Louisiana Derby in a dogfight at 1 mile and three sixteenths in just his second lifetime start and registers a 102 Brisnet and comes back barely breathing hard. It's no wonder why Prat jumped off Commandment to ride this guy. Now, the elephant in the room…..Can he win the Derby in just his third lifetime start? I don't think so, I mean horses with two lifetime starts have won the Derby once in 151 years (Leontus in 1883) but man, if anyone can do it, this beautiful mover seems to have the ability to do so.

PP# 14 - Pavlovian has good speed and is sharp right now having eked out a win in the Sunland Park Derby, then giving the mega talented Emerging Market all he could handle in the Louisiana Derby after setting a fast pace. He figures to be in front or close to it early, but he’ll have company out there and he might be forced to go too fast too early.

PP# 15 - Six Speed comes over from Dubai with a 5-3-1-1 career mark. However, he was beaten fair and square by Wonder Dean in his last race and I’m not big on Wonder Dean. Therefore, I’m not big on this colt either…..next….

PP# 16- It certainly appears that Further Ado is a beast…period….end of sentence. I mean, if this race was run at Keeneland, he would be 1/5 at post time as he’s won both races there by a combined 31 lengths. This $550,000 son of Gun Runner is not a one trick pony however. After breaking his maiden by a colossal margin in October, he “bounced” and still won the Street Sense Stakes on this oval (getting the oh-so-important race over the track in the process). Trainer Brad Cox gave him 3 ½ months off, brought him back about 85% ready and still almost beat The Puma in the Tampa Bay Derby. From there, he absolutely annihilated the Bluegrass field, winning by 11 lengths and scoring a monster 106 Beyer. Lastly, if there is a horse training better this past week or 10 days….please…point him out to me. Add all that up and you have a very, very serious threat to win, even though (and I’m knitpicking here), he seems to pick up both his front legs a little too high for my liking while in full stride. Like The Puma, that is unnecessarily expending energy. 

PP# 17 - Golden Tempo has the breeding and running style to win this race. His last two races, both losses, were much better than they looked. Put him in the Albus category as he will need a kamikaze pace to have an impact, That's if he starts of course. I understand he has a cracked heel, which can be very painful. For that reason alone, I might just pass on him but I’d like to see him in the post parade first.

PP# 18- Great White will draw in with the defection of Silent Tactic. If this were a size contest, this enormous gray would win by 10 lengths as he stands over 17 hands tall and a mind boggling 1,265 lbs, giving him a natural massive stride. His synthetics form is ok, but his one start in the dirt was abysmal. He showed brief speed in the Bluegrass Stake before spitting out the bit and finishing fifth beaten by 22 lengths…..I love his size but that’s as far as it goes…..pass. 

PP# 19 - Ocelli gets in late with the scratch of Fulleffort, who I thought was a live longshot. Anyway, this horse is still a maiden and his best effort was a third in a slowly run Wood Memorial….no thanks..

PP# 20- Robusta gets in with the late scratch of Right To Party. He does have speed but, past a maiden win and good effort in the San Felipe Stakes, he hasn’t shown me nearly enough to be a contender, nonetheless win here…..pass.

Selections:
1) Renegade
2) Further Ado
3) Emerging Market

Also consider:
Commandment
Chief Wallabee
Incredibolt
Potente

This weekend clearly needs no introduction as we will be looking at a total of 16 races, seven on Friday, including the Kentucky Oaks, and nine on Saturday, including, of course, the biggest horse race in this country (and I argue the world): The Kentucky Derby.

Because these next two days at Churchill Downs are jam packed with Graded Stakes races and millions of dollars in purse money, the fields not only drew big, but deep in talent as well.

Therefore, you will notice I went deeper in my analysis’ in these races as well. 

You will notice I talked about as many as six, seven, even as many as eight horses in a single race. 

What I wanted to make clear to you about that was this: 

The top three horses in each race are the ones I like. The rest, located in “also consider,” are exactly that.  They are horses (and situations) that should be “considered.” This does not mean I’m picking all the horses mentioned in a specific race. I pick win, place and show and the rest should be considered. Those of you who have been with me through the years probably remember when I called my also considers my “honorable mentions”...same thing …just a different name. 

Moving forward, let’s go ahead and say it, the Kentucky Derby is THE most difficult race to figure bar none. This year, with no clear standout, is no different.
Like normal, the race goes to the horse who is peaking and, more importantly, gets the best trip. 

The Oaks too, as well as roughly 12-14 of the 16 races we will look at. This year it took every bit of knowledge I’ve gathered over the past 46 years to try to figure it all out. 

So without further adieu……lets go…

Friday, May 1st, 2026
Churchill Downs
Race: 7 (3:48 PM EDT)
Unbridled Sidney Stakes
1) After beating older males in the 2025 Breeders Cup Turf Sprint as a three year old filly (scoring a 106 Beyer Speed Figure) which is rare, Shisospicy was voted your 2025 Champion Female Sprinter. She was then sold for an eye-popping $5.2 million. This grey daughter of Mitole has been off since then, and although she has been working well for her 2026 debut and appears to be the “speed of the speed,” this may not be a walk in the park for her as this race is loaded with other early burners. 
2) Haulin Ice has come out running in 2026, winning both starts and being visually impressive both times. No worries about switching surfaces as she proved she can handle the turf at Gulfstream Park shortly after Christmas last year. Note: as of this writing she is cross entered in race 4 on Saturday.
3) Queen Maxima has won eight of 14 career starts, including this race last year. That said, I saw no visible excuse for her going down as the odds on favorite in her last over her “home” turf course.
Also consider: The speedy Shoot It True, who may have needed her 2026 debut in her last, has learned to rate and come from behind of late. That could bode well for her with so much early speed in here……The same holds true for the late running Creed’s Gold (who opens at 20-1 with Prat aboard?) and Mae Town, who passed six horses down the lane in her last, (but that was nine months ago). Both are longshot possibilities.

Race: 8 (4:30 PM EDT)
Eight Belles Stakes
1) On Time Girl had won five of her first six (sprint) races, including being 2 for 2 on this oval, before finishing third at a mile after being super wide on the turn…cuts back to her best game (sprinting).
2) Goodall is a $525,000 daughter of Yaupon who buried a $150k Stakes race field at Oaklawn Park in her last, getting 6F in a smoking 1:08.3. By the way she galloped out, she should have no problem with another furlong here.
3) French Friction led the Grade: 1 Ashland Stakes for the first half mile before faltering on the turn. She now drops in class and cuts back to sprinting, where she is 2 for 2 in those situations and won those two by a combined 11+ lengths. 
Also consider: River Wind clobbered maidens at first asking, then completely missed the break in her second start, yet managed to be second to Goodall in her last….could easily outrun this rating……Luv Thy Neighbor even though she has a bad case of “second-itis” it must be noted she finished close behind two of the top fillies in the nation in her last two starts…….Sippin Pretty was impressive winning her last two. Steps up, but could be a menace. 

Race: 9 (5:12 PM EDT)
Alysheba Stakes
1) Corporate Power is a $975,000 son of Curlin who flashed talent early in his career before going on the sidelines for 15 ½ months. After beating non winners of two life, (95 Brisnet Figure) in his come back race, this big, good looking five year old just missed behind that win machine they call Touchuponastar while getting nine furlongs in the racehorse time of 1:46.4 in the Grade: 2 New Orleans Handicap in his last (105 Brisnet). Moreover, he drew a pretty good post for his running style and you get the third start off the layoff angle. After going with back to back favorites to start the day Friday, I’ll take one opening at 10-1.
2) It’s remarkable that fan favorite Skippylongstocking seems to be in career best form at seven years old. This handsome horse has rattled off three straight wins including finally taking down a Grade: 1 race two back and beating recent Sovereignty/Journalism conqueror White Abarrio in the process. He is also adaptable to any pace scenario which is always a big tactical advantage. All that said, I’m not sure the quirky Churchill Downs surface is one of his favorites.
3) Even though he has lots to like, I am taking a stand against morning line favorite Baeza, which could easily come back to bite me. This regally bred, $1.2 million colt spent most of last year chasing Sovereignty and Journalism around the country while posting six straight “trips” Brisnet Figures. He goes from the late John Sherriffs barn to that of Bill Mott’s, who is a master of bringing horses back running off of layoffs. Case in point, note this colt’s last work at the notoriously deep surfaced Payson Park in Florida….5F- 1:00.3??...unheard of (fast)….which in turn signals readiness. All that being said, there are some talented runners in this race and I am struggling with this colt beating them all in his first start in almost six months.
Also consider: The drop dead gorgeous East Avenue, who has been plagued with inconsistencies throughout his career. However, I loved his 2026 debut as he rated off the pace, swung wide on the turn and finished well to be second. He should improve off that effort…my only question is: is he over his inconsistencies or are we looking at another Fierceness type horse here?.......Disruptor is a $1,150,000 son of Gun Runner who is unbeaten in two starts this year while scoring 93 and 103 Brisnet Figures. If he improves again, and I suspect he might, then he will outrun this rating for sure……..After finishing last, beaten by 22 lengths, what in the world happened to Tappan Street in his last race? This $1 million son of super sire Into Mischief, who had won three of four career starts (including beating Sovereignty fair and square) is much better than that last race indicates………Grande has won four of his first five races, but after setting a slow early pace, he was all out, life and death to win the Grade: 3 Ghostzapper last time…………Nu What’s New is in career form right now, winning three of his last four, including winning the Oaklawn Mile last time out. I just feel like the clock is about to strike 12 for this Cinderella horse as his Brisnets continue to fall (107, 100, 96 and 92).

Race: 10 (6:01 PM EDT)
Modesty Stakes
1) In Gezora’s one and only start in this country she won the BC F&M Turf at 9-1 last year, then got handed over to trainer Chad Brown who specializes in female turf runners….logical choice.
2) Whiskey Decision has run well in her last five races dating back to last June, including just missing in a Grade: 2  last time out and recently sold for $1.5 million. Looks next best.
3) Proctor Street is batting .500 in her career and was only a neck behind Whiskey Decision in her last.

Race: 11 (6:56 PM EDT)
La Trioenne Stakes
1) Shred the Gnar is a $610,000 daughter of Into Mischief who has speed to burn. Throw out her last race as she never looked comfortable and probably needed the race as it was her first start in 89 days. She now returns to her favorite surface, where she is 2 for 2.
2) Chasten is also by Into Mischief and out of Lockdown, making her a half sister to two time champion Idiomatic (who might be one of the biggest horses I’ve ever seen in my life). Watching her last two races on video, it appears this bay filly is beginning to put it all together.  
3) Fully Subscribed waltzed home an easy winner in back to back Graded Stakes races in NY to end 2025. I love her Brisnet Figure pattern as they have climbed through all five races in her career (81, 83, 93, 98 and 100)....Brown can bring them back ready with the best of them, so I feel like I must consider her.
Also consider: Scalable who appears to have cycled into top form of late…..Bless the Broken won her 2026 debut, then chased the streaking Splendora in her last…….Snowyte ($750,000 daughter of Good Magic) and Drexel Hill (not sure she is the same filly after knee surgery …hence the break in her career from May to November of 2025) both rated upset chances.

Race: 12 (7:40 PM EDT)
Edgewood Stakes
1) Imaginationthelady won her first two starts, ran an admirable and close up fourth in the BC Juvenile Turf last year and probably needed her 2026 debut, where she closed fast, late and just missed. Although the morning line says this is a wide open race, I don't think so as she looks best.
2) Just Aloof won her first two starts in California and then finished just inches behind my top choice last time out.
3) Tam Tam is a $975,000 daughter of “MDO” whose career did a 180 after being switched to the turf.
Also consider: Lion Lake who is sharp as a tack right now having won two races then was right behind my top two choices last time out……Dandona is a $750,000 daughter of Tiz the Law who likes the turf and just keeps getting better…..They also paid $750,000 for Time to Dream, who got off to a good start in her career, went sideways a little bit, then finished within shouting distance to Dandona in her 2026 debut.

Race: 13 (8:40 PM EDT)
Kentucky Oaks
1) Keeneland race caller Kurt Becker hit the nail on the head when he described Percy’s Bar’s “breathtaking move” on the turn (overcoming slow pace) to take command and draw off late to win her second Grade: 1 race, the Ashland Stakes in her last. That was this absolutely gorgeous filly’s first race in a little over five months, so you have to figure she will improve off that. If she does, heaven help her competition. 
2) Meaning was fourth, beaten less than four lengths in the BC Juvenile Filly race last November in just her second career start, signaling talent right from the get go. Since then, this $440,000 daughter of Gun Runner has methodically improved, winning both 2026 starts. With two starts under her belt you get the third start off the layoff angle as well. Here’s something else that jumped out at me. Note how, not only is Juan Hernandez trainer Bob Baffert’s “go to” rider, but he’s also the regular rider of Explora, yet he jumps off of her to ride this filly….I thought it kind of made a statement. 
3) Always a Runner is one of two Chad Brown horses running this weekend (Emerging Market in the Derby) with just two lifetime starts. That said, this $1,050,000 daughter of Gun Runner was impressive in both races, burying maidens over the quirky Tampa Bay Downs surface, then shipping north to win a Grade: 2 in NY after being so wide, I thought she was looking for her car in the parking lot. Lastly, 10-1 on the morning line offers excellent value.
Also consider:  Explora has never been worse than second in seven lifetime starts and gets “Flav” in the saddle. However, she is 0 for 2 in Grade: 1 races and I do not like the “win a race, lose a race” pattern she has set in her career…….I’m going to play against tepid morning line favorite Zany here and hope it doesn't come back to bite me. This filly by “AP” was, in many people’s minds, the early Oaks favorite off of three lopsided wins to start her career. However, in her first Grade: 1 attempt, Percy’s Bar dominated her and she offered little resistance against that filly that day…………I’m not sure what happened to Counting Stars on Feb 6 (or Oct 4, 2025 for that matter) but if you ignore those two races, you’ll find a talented filly who would be 4 for 5 in her career and coming off a Grade: 2 Fantasy Stakes win. If you can find it in your heart to do that, then move her up the list because she has the talent to win this race or at least run very well…………Prom Queen walloped maidens two back, then came with a sweeping, three wide run on the turn to win the Gulfstream Park Oaks in her last. This is a nice filly, but as you know, I’m not a big fan of horses coming off the GP surface……..Brooklyn Blonde at 30-1 is interesting as she has done nothing but improve through four career races (Brisnet Figures: 69, 73, 88 and 93), highlighted by finishing just two lengths behind Meaning in her last….longshot possibility?