Built a live football betting bot scanning in-play stats every 5 min — do you have a profitable entry schema you'd share?
Hey everyone,
I've been building a Python bot that scans live football matches on a Polish bookmaker (Superbet) every 5 minutes and looks for betting opportunities based on in-play statistics. Wanted to share what I have and ask experienced live bettors about their entry schemas — especially if you have something that consistently works.
What the bot does:
🔥 Pressing Alert — detects when a team is truly dominating (not just slightly ahead), based on:
- Attack share ≥ 65% (not 55% — that's just normal play)
- Dangerous attacks advantage ≥ 8
- Shots advantage ≥ 6
- Shots on target ≥ 2 (quality check)
- Win odds ≥ 1.70
📈 Goals Prediction — estimates final goal count using:
- Extrapolated scoring rate (with regression to league average ~2.6)
- Shot quality model (shots on target ~30% conversion, all shots ~12%)
- Recommends Over/Under only when odds are between 1.75–2.50
📊 Value Detection — compares bookmaker's implied probability vs our estimated fair probability. Flags when bookie seems to be mispricing (e.g. team dominating stats but losing 0:1 so odds are still 2.65+)
💰 Bet Tracker — simulates 100 PLN stake per alert, calculates payout after 12% Polish betting tax (stake × 0.88 × odds), tracks wins/losses, and prints hourly/daily/monthly summaries with ROI.
Example output:
text🔥 PRESSING ALERT
⚽ Legia vs Lech
📊 Score: 0:1 | ⏱ 55' (2H — 35 min to end)
💪 Legia DOMINATING!
Attacks: 58 (67%) vs 29
Dangerous att: 24 vs 9 (+15)
Shots: 11 vs 3 (+8) on target: 4
📊 VALUE ANALYSIS:
Bookie implies: 38% chance (odds 2.65)
Our estimate: 61% chance
🔥🔥 STRONG VALUE (1.62x) — bookie mispricing detected!
🎰 BET SIMULATION:
Stake: 100 PLN
Tax (12%): -12 PLN
Net effective: 88 PLN × 2.65
Potential win: 233.20 PLN
Potential profit: +133.20 PLN
What I'm trying to figure out:
The bot generates signals but I want to make it auto-bet eventually. The problem is I don't have a solid entry schema — a set of rules that experienced live bettors actually use to decide WHEN and WHAT to bet.
Does anyone regularly bet this way and have a stats-based betting schema they'd be willing to share?