Sorry for the vague question. I'm a sympathetic outsider who has been trying to follow the conflict but I feel like none of the powers involved have any reason to give accurate info, everything is propaganda, and I'm quite lost.
For the ppl who are watching closely, what sorts of things are you looking at and hoping for? What's your read? I welcome any insight into how ppl are thinking about this.
A few specific things I'm confused about:
I'm really unclear on where we're expecting any kind of uprising? I know that was the hope at some point, and Reza even indicated he was in communication with friendly forces but I haven't heard about that in a while. But also obviously with the Internet blackout and surveillance state any opposition would be very covert. But also I can't imagine ppl trusting the US to have their backs in that climate and so many were killed a few months ago.
Could there be shake-ups happening behind the scenes at the top? Quite apart from the US intervention and freedom issues, the regime was doing a terrible job managing the country right? Water, inflation, etc. So I could imagine a *type* of regime change happening that wasn't what ppl were hoping for but that might still be an improvement?
What's the end game with the strait? Is the regime willing to shoot themselves in the foot by forgoing oil revenue for long (if the US blockades) or is this just playing chicken with Trump?
Are the ppl generally doing ok? The conflict seems to have settled around the strait, so it seems like there isn't widespread hardship and shortages yet? Is that the case?
Are there any online sources you'd consider reliable?
Really appreciate any insights!