Esports data VS odds conversation that we should start having
Something worth talking about when it comes to trading/data side would be the latest shift observed in Esport lobbies!
When you model traditional sports, physical fatigue is manageable., you have rest days, fixture congestion, travel logs, injury reports, etc so the degradation curve is relatively predictable. (sportsbooks have been pricing tired legs for decades)
Esports don't get tired legs, it has "tilt", for example:
A player on tilt in a CS2 or Dota 2 lobby isn't showing up in a physio report. It's showing up in their flash accuracy at round 18, their gold efficiency dropping 15% off baseline, their team's timeout clustering. By the time a casual bettor watching the stream thinks "they look shaky," the market should already have moved, but in a lot of live esports products, it hasn't.
That gap between what the data sees and what the odds reflect is the real conversation operators need to be having. If your live esports repricing is running on the same cadence as a pre-match football market, you probably have a mismatch worth fixing.
Any thoughts on this?