I’m talking moneylines, spreads, totals for sports like MLB, NFL, CFB, CBB, NBA.
How much time after the lines are released will I have to bet them at opening price?
Is there a good place to monitor to see when opening odds have dropped or is that something I gotta create myself
Any help is appreciated, thank you!
I’ve been pretty curious what kinds of approaches people in this sub use. Obviously you don’t have to give away any of your secrets, but I feel like a general high level overview would be nice to see.
I come from more of an applied ML background, so my approach has always been how can I build the best ML model in order to be profitable.
I guess if you’re not doing ML, it’s more of a traditional statistical route?
Curious to hear people’s experiences with both approaches and which ones worked better for you guys
It seems pretty accepted that closing lines are as close to the true probability as we can get, but I’ve always been a little bit skeptical on that.
I assume closing lines are probably not super efficient on really niche markets, so maybe it’s possible to be (+) CLV and (-) ROI on those markets, but I was just curious about other people’s experiences. Obviously it’s possible in a short noisy sample, but I’m talking about large samples
Also, do closing lines at recreational books like draft kings have any merit? Or is it best to use the closing lines of a sharper book like pinnacle? I imagine when you devig the odds they’re almost identical, but I haven’t looked into this too much
Thank you!