Also for me the last week was hard to swallow. The weekend gave me some time to think. In my opinion, the cancelled cooperation with Celestial AI // Marvell was quite important for POET, but not in every way. Strategically and for the story around the company, it was really big Celestial was, or so I at least understand it, the flagship partner that showed POET’s technology in advanced AI systems, especially with their Photonic Fabric idea for connecting chips directly with light. This relationship from 2023 helped a lot with my excitement and probaly also the share price valuation.
When Marvell bought Celestial, I hoped it would open even bigger doors like Amazon and Google and I thinkt, that is why the stock dropped so hard after the cancellation. But when it comes to actual revenue and operations, the importance was less crucial. They did mostly initial and test orders - if I understand correctly -, not yet big volume shipments. POET’s total revenue is still small, and the company quickly pointed to other orders like the separate $5 million one. For the short term, it’s clearly a setback – it hurts credibility a bit and delays some near-term revenue.
Longer term, I think POET can handle it. They are working with LITEON, Luxshare, Foxconn/FIT and others in the transceiver space. The technology itself isn’t depending on just one customer. All in all, Celestial was more of a prestige and narrative driver than a real revenue pillar right now. I hope the cancellation forces POET to push harder on the broader pipeline, which might even make the story healthier in the end. Still, the strong market reaction shows how sentiment-driven the stock remains at this stage - being a POET shareholder is not always easy, but I still believe in the story and I hope they will soon show results, that the market can appreciate. - Those thoughts and writing them down helped me a bit, and I hope you all have a relaxing sunday! Let's hope for a better new week.