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u/AdStunning7419

▲ 41 r/NBIS_Stock

NBIS puts into earnings — chart looks cooked

NBIS went completely vertical into earnings and I think this is a classic sell-the-news setup. Expectations are way too high now. They don’t just need good earnings, they need perfect earnings and perfect guidance.

Insiders are also offloading into strength, which isn’t automatically bearish, but when the chart is this extended, it’s not exactly bullish either.

Technically it looks stretched: parabolic move, no real consolidation, crowded AI/cloud trade, and air pockets underneath if momentum breaks.

I’m bearish short term. Looking for a flush back into the 160s or lower after earnings.

TLDR: overextended chart, insiders selling, earnings bar too high. May 22 puts.

u/AdStunning7419 — 3 days ago
▲ 3 r/wallstreetbets

IREN is up ~90% in 5 weeks ($31 → $60) into Thursday’s Q3 FY26 print and I think this is a textbook sell-the-news setup. The biggest bullish catalyst everyone’s chasing — the 1.4GW Sweetwater energization — physically happens in April, which is Q4 FY26, not the quarter being reported. That means the actual numbers tomorrow can’t show Sweetwater impact; best case is bullish forward commentary, which is already priced in at $60 with analyst PTs averaging $72 and B. Riley at $83. The 16.8% short interest that fueled the squeeze has largely covered into the rally, so the marginal forced buyer is gone while the marginal seller (November bagholders from $77 finally back to even) is now the dominant flow. Options are pricing ±17% expected move, putting the post-earnings range at $50-$70, and to keep ripping from here IREN needs a beat AND a raise AND clean Sweetwater confirmation AND enough surprise to overcome IV crush — way more paths to down than up.
Playing it with May 15 $60 puts (ATM, 7DTE post-earnings for high delta and forced exit discipline) or the $60/$50 put debit spread for defined risk at half the premium. Counter-thesis is real — if Microsoft Horizon 1 starts contributing, AI Cloud ARR blows past $500M, and management announces a new hyperscaler, this rips to $75-80 easy. But at $60 with everything priced in, beta 4.31, overbought RSI, and a parabolic 5-week chart, the risk/reward is bad.
May 7 5pm ET tells us who’s right.

u/AdStunning7419 — 7 days ago
▲ 2 r/irenstocks

IREN is up ~90% in 5 weeks ($31 → $60) into Thursday’s Q3 FY26 print and I think this is a textbook sell-the-news setup. The biggest bullish catalyst everyone’s chasing — the 1.4GW Sweetwater energization — physically happens in April, which is Q4 FY26, not the quarter being reported. That means the actual numbers tomorrow can’t show Sweetwater impact; best case is bullish forward commentary, which is already priced in at $60 with analyst PTs averaging $72 and B. Riley at $83. The 16.8% short interest that fueled the squeeze has largely covered into the rally, so the marginal forced buyer is gone while the marginal seller (November bagholders from $77 finally back to even) is now the dominant flow. Options are pricing ±17% expected move, putting the post-earnings range at $50-$70, and to keep ripping from here IREN needs a beat AND a raise AND clean Sweetwater confirmation AND enough surprise to overcome IV crush — way more paths to down than up.
Playing it with May 15 $60 puts (ATM, 7DTE post-earnings for high delta and forced exit discipline) or the $60/$50 put debit spread for defined risk at half the premium. Counter-thesis is real — if Microsoft Horizon 1 starts contributing, AI Cloud ARR blows past $500M, and management announces a new hyperscaler, this rips to $75-80 easy. But at $60 with everything priced in, beta 4.31, overbought RSI, and a parabolic 5-week chart, the risk/reward is bad., May 7 5pm ET tells us who’s right.

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u/AdStunning7419 — 7 days ago