SpaceX Is Buying Tesla — Sooner Than You Think
The $50,000 Bet:
I just bought 115 contracts of the Tesla December 18, 2026 $990 calls at $4.42
The Setup:
Elon has repeatedly said he views advanced AI and humanoid robots like Optimus as a potential existential risk to humanity. He tried to secure 25% voting control at Tesla to protect his ability to steer that future. When he couldn’t get it, he built absolute control inside SpaceX instead.
A confidential draft of SpaceX’s S-1 leaked to Reuters showing he will retain 83.8% voting control post-IPO through Class B shares carrying 10 votes each. The filing explicitly noted this structure gives him “the power to control other issues requiring shareholder approval, including M&A transactions.”
Morgan Stanley has never disputed the leak.
Why before the IPO?:
Because right now, while SpaceX is still private, Elon has near-total control. He can sign a definitive merger agreement with essentially no resistance. He doesn’t need to close the deal before the IPO — he just needs to announce it.
The SEC’s role in the S-1 process is disclosure, not approval of the deal’s fairness. A definitive agreement can be dropped into the initial filing or added during the comment period, right up until the night of pricing.
This is Elon’s window. He has absolute control today. That window closes once SpaceX goes public.
The Payoff:
If a definitive merger agreement is announced during the S-1 process, Tesla could jump ~30% to ~$554. These calls would move to roughly $55, delivering about 12.5x (assuming IV expands to 85% on the news).
If SpaceX then goes public with a 50% IPO pop, taking Tesla to ~$830, these calls would move to roughly $170, delivering about 38.5x (at elevated IV of 85% on the IPO).