https://preview.redd.it/dqyuqyfinw0h1.png?width=2146&format=png&auto=webp&s=f6f44a249f1e3b1f29b5a1abad050df765b4137a

News

• ppi higher
• 10:30 oil inv
• 13:00 30y bond auction

Higher Timeframe

• Long flagpole
• yesterday we took out 2 daily lows which brings us in short term balance
• Both markets came back up after midtime with v-shape recovery which signals ongoing bullishness

Lower Timeframe

• we open around the rth h

Thoughts

• A bigger liquidation got rejected which is a sign of strength
• The question in this environment should be: Is this the big sparkling broad liquidation?
• For now it is clearly not
• Yesterday it was mostly tech that liquidated in the morning while other sectors were green
• I was short nq and targeted the weekly virgin poc which i did not get. So i had to close for a small profit when it came back in

https://preview.redd.it/wkta9txxjp0h1.png?width=2197&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a12cef92d35a432da14aac840a95186c05af7bb

News

• cpi came out
• Goolsbee and Hegseth talking
• 11:00 Trump interview
• 13:00 10y bond auction

Higher Timeframe

• Long flagpole

Lower Timeframe

• eth explored below rth l
• but we open near the low
• nq is a bit weaker and could open with small gap down

Thoughts

• Trading is about CHANGE
• The job of the trader is to see if we have a meaningful change
• IF we have, there can develop short opportunity
• IF we do not have (which was always the case in the last weeks) there will be long opportunity
• In the latter case there can be some early downward pressure which fails to get continuation

https://preview.redd.it/8ivtk10ofi0h1.png?width=2367&format=png&auto=webp&s=59c12eb51c2f989eba5fd916b2bbb08c4f9ccc08

News

• still no agreement between us and iran
• 10:00 numbers
• 13:00 bond auction

Higher Timeframe

• Long flagpole

Lower Timeframe

• we open in fridays belly

Thoughts

• If this crazy buying goes on i will continue to buy smaller breaks and take profits early
• If (and only if) we see a bigger liquidation i would engage in shorts
• Do not anticipate a liquidation, wait until it happens
• A first step would be a break of otf. Without this do not even think of shorting

https://preview.redd.it/0gt9dn9kqizg1.png?width=2226&format=png&auto=webp&s=daa6ca80d932551ca4ac4226b2f0a955ffb2c3cc

News

• stocks up, oil down on rumors on iran agreement
• 10:30 crude oil inv
• 12:30 trump speaks

Higher Timeframe

• Long flagpole

Lower Timeframe

• gap up on rumors on top of flagpole
• open in middle of onr (away from the top)

Thoughts

• sentiment is bullish but its risky because inventory is very long and liquidations can come anytime (i will save this sentence because its the same for weeks now)

https://preview.redd.it/an8cfh9kmbzg1.png?width=2016&format=png&auto=webp&s=cdad94c187506cae93bc70384fd3b9601db33d0a

News

• 0945 numbers
• 1000 numbers

Higher Timeframe

• We are still on the flagpole and still did not get a bigger liquidation

Lower Timeframe

• yesterday we liquidated very little
• today we open near y rth h

Thoughts

• Definitely a low opportunity market as we are too strong to liquidate (for now) and too overbought to buy
• a little scalp here and there is the only thing i see
• sometimes its more about not loosing than winning
• times will change and opportunies will come back

https://preview.redd.it/kblrps5vg4zg1.png?width=2260&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd81e21d00c91050886f8a1b17d2ba206300063a

News

• 10:00 factory orders

Higher Timeframe

• we broke out from 2 week balance
• but had a reversal bar on friday

Lower Timeframe

• We open with small gap down

Thoughts

• Last tuesday we also had a gap down. This was very tough to trade in the first hours
• Today wait for more confirmation, no need to be first
• Only trade short when a sparkling liquidation develops
• without tech there will be no sell off, watch sectors
• acceptane in fridays range is bullish
• acceptance in 2 week balance is bearish

https://preview.redd.it/zbewa4zp1jyg1.png?width=2065&format=png&auto=webp&s=b83467ea0a1b00a4f76f02cc6662266275d2a94b

News

• aapl +3% after earnings
• 0945 numbers
• 1000 numbers

Higher Timeframe

• yesterday early liquidation failed
• after this breakout from 2 week balance

Lower Timeframe

• the whole upmove after the liquidation is one big spike
• we open with small gap up above that spike

Thoughts

• Market is very bullish
• But inventory is dangerously long
• To think of a short-trade i would need to see acceptance back in 2 week balance first
• Good long locations are after at least a small liquidation that has failed

https://preview.redd.it/j2btuabavbyg1.png?width=2389&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f29c904265f45e7c50f2f4c9c8f205eb03d27df

News

• goog +7%
• amzn +3.5
• msft -1.5%
• meta -9%
• today aapl amc
• 0945 pmi
• 1130 trump interview

Higher Timeframe

• 2 week flat balance area on top of flagpole

Lower Timeframe

• we open with gap up near balance area high (rth ath)
• the ath was made in eth

Thoughts

• market should still be a bit overbought but after 2 weeks balancing to a reduced degree
• useless to say that i would prefer a big liquidation
• we have to take what is so i would also trade long if we see strength

https://preview.redd.it/vz9kjk92r4yg1.png?width=2306&format=png&auto=webp&s=68322098e75545792d8392ffadc67965d018b176

News

• 0945 boc
• 1030 crude oil
• 1400 fed decision
• 1430 fed press conference
• amc big tech earnings

Higher Timeframe

• Flat balance area on flagpole

Lower Timeframe

• yesterday gap down was followed by only very little liquidation
• we open in middle of range

Thoughts

• absolutely no reason for early offensive trading
• often we see a quiet market before big news

https://preview.redd.it/vmm3kl7zmxxg1.png?width=2225&format=png&auto=webp&s=2ef4b9e405d23575b657404fcb7415edd00de8ce

News

• UAE will leave opec. oil higher
• 10:00 numbers
• 11:00 trump and king charles
• 13:00 bond auction
• tomorrow fed and big tech earnings

Higher Timeframe

• flat 7 day balance on top of long flagpole

Lower Timeframe

• we open with gap down in both markets
• nq which rose faster and higher has the bigger gap down

Thoughts

• No doubt that there are late to the party buyers that could trigger a liquidation when getting under water
• But there also is money on the sideline which wants to get in
• As always we have to wait and see
• Yesterdays rth low can be helpful to judge
• In case of stronger liquidation the low of the balance would be a first target for me followed by weekly vpocs

News

• 1300 bond auction

Higher Timeframe

• 6 day balance area on top of flagpole

Lower Timeframe

• we open in fridays belly

Thoughts

• Small liquidations can be buyable after stabilization. I will not get long without some prior shakeout
• Bigger liquidations can be shortable

https://preview.redd.it/dvuqt6hexoxg1.png?width=457&format=png&auto=webp&s=fc543a299288f1c8187c36086f92b4d5e3cbaad6

https://preview.redd.it/i56vc8hexoxg1.png?width=1574&format=png&auto=webp&s=00d88668f12e1cf3830880e4e968b7df160b324c

What do we see?

• We are at channel highs on the monthly charts
• Brent is above 100 USD, but we have seen a decoupling of the stock market the last weeks
• Sectors were divergent, only tech was strong last week
• We have big tech earnings and fed this week (with highlight on wednesday)

What does this mean?

• Beeing at channel highs, inventory is very long which gives potential for a liquidation. Just potential, does not mean that it has to happen
• Having many news this week, there could appear a news trigger
• If we see a liquidation we could target the low of the 6 day balance in ES
• Of course we could as well grind higher
• As always we have to wait and see what is and align with that

https://preview.redd.it/jgbgmqs8yoxg1.png?width=1533&format=png&auto=webp&s=13960f8139f1e2ef2d54363c0d7c9f3958520e8b