New NBER Paper by Anton Korinek: AI Singularity could arrive within 6 years of automating software R&D
Economist Anton Korinek (alongside Davidson, Halperin, and Houlden) just released a heavy-hitting NBER working paper: "When Does Automating AI Research Produce Explosive Growth?"
It’s not just hype; it’s a semi-endogenous growth model that treats AI research as a feedback loop.
The "Explosive" Threshold: We don’t need 100% automation. The model shows the economy tips into an explosive regime at just 13% to 17% automation across sectors, provided software and hardware R&D are included.
Hardware is King: Interestingly, the paper finds that hardware R&D is ~5x more impactful than software. Automating one chip-design task moves the needle as much as five software tasks because of the massive spillover effects.
The Timeline: If we reach full software R&D automation (which Jack Clark recently gave a 60% chance of happening by 2028), the model predicts a singularity within ~6 years.
The Mechanism: A dual feedback loop, technological (AI builds better AI) and economic (AI output funds more AI research).
The math suggests that as long as bottlenecks (like energy or regulation) don't advance faster than automation itself, we are looking at a fundamentally different economic reality by the early 2030s.
What do you guys think? Is the "hardware multiplier" the missing piece of the puzzle we've been overlooking? And can physical constraints (power/fabs) actually slow down a loop that is mathematically tipped toward explosion?
nber.org/papers/w35155