There was a good summary published on Barchart.com today (May 4th) and republished on Yahoo - the article by Mikhail Fedorov gives a good summation of history and current situation with SMCI.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/super-micro-windfall-legal-snare-192718396.html
Really everything hinges on if the DoJ decides to prosecute the company (sword of Damocles hanging over SMCI, as the author succinctly puts it).
Indicators to date show DoJ only going after the individuals involved, but if the DoJ find anything in their investigation that shows the rest of management were aware of the situation and did not act, or that the internal controls were intentionally lax, then SMCI could be effectively shut down. On the flip side, if DoJ close their investigation without going after SMCI itself, this likely goes to the moon, and could turn into a legendary uptick setting off a significant short squeeze.
This also assumes the coming ER is going to be positive, and all indicators appear that it will be. Yes margins probably dropped, but a lot of that is because of the huge increase in capex SMCI have been exercising, and the payoff for that comes next. Read that article for more on that.
I put little concern over the class action suit(s) currently being filed. The sp was already hammered into the ground before the China export issue, so any losses from this are relatively minimal, particularly considering the sp has almost entirely recovered from that drop. Class actions are constantly being filed against pretty much every large corporation in the US for a variety of reasons, it's just part of doing business in a highly litigious environment.
Back to the DoJ. My personal views at present; SMCI are tied into some truly mammoth corporations who would suffer significantly if DoJ restricted SMCI from international trade, or pulled their license entirely. Don't forget that these corporations contribute heavily to politicians on both sides of the aisle. The ramifications of pulling SMCI's license could literally impact the US economy significantly because of these large corps are already tied in to the SMCI infrastructure. A forced change would cost them many billions to 'retool' to a different supplier. I believe the DoJ will take this into consideration.
There is a political aspect to this, but I don't want to get sidetracked into that bs. Suffice to say I believe that it favors SMCI that we are currently under a republican majority.
I'm betting on SMCI, although I wouldn't be surprised to see the MMs who have gone short try one more time to shake the tree very hard tomorrow, either during the day, or immediately following the ER. I would not be setting stops at this point - either you're in or you're out. If the sp drops significantly, buy more, ceteris paribus.
So read that article.. I'm tempted to post it here as it really is quite good imo. Here's the link again:
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/super-micro-windfall-legal-snare-192718396.html