so spacex ipo june 8th roadshow, 1.75T valuation, retail gets 30%. what im actually trying to figure out is what happens to RKLB and ASTS after.
im a long term holder, like 10-15 years out, not trying to flip the ipo. just trying to figure out if i should pick up either of these and when.
honestly im torn on RKLB. on one hand why would anyone buy the small space stock when they can just buy actual spacex now. but on the other hand RKLB is basically the only other real vertically integrated space company you can buy, and if spacex trades at 100x revenue then RKLB at 75x suddenly looks reasonable lol
ASTS is the one i keep going back and forth on. its technically a different business (direct to phone, no terminal needed) so it shouldnt compete with spacex for capital in theory. but once spacex is public and on cnbc every day youre gonna hear about starlink direct to cell nonstop and ASTS becomes the underdog story instead of the only game in town. i actually sold ASTS recently partly because of this and now im not sure if i was right or just panicked
few things im curious about:
has anyone been through something similar? i keep thinking about facebook ipo and what happened to the smaller social media stocks but i wasnt really paying attention back then
what about the 6 month lockup expiration, does that drag the whole sector down or just spacex
are you guys planning anything around the ipo or just doing nothing
does spacex being public just kill the ASTS thesis once people can compare them directly
not looking for "just buy voo" answers. genuinely curious especially if anyone has watched a big private competitor go public before and remembers how it played out
thanks