Alright, let me break down why CMPX has gone from a $5 stock to a ~$1.80 stock in a week; and why I think the market has over reacted.
Tovecimig met the primary ORR endpoint (17.1% vs. 5.3%, p=0.031) and crushed the PFS secondary endpoint with an HR of 0.44 (p<0.0001) — that's a 56% reduction in disease progression risk. Let that sink in.
So why did the stock crater 60%+? The OS secondary endpoint was confounded. 54% of patients in the control arm crossed over to receive tovecimig, and those crossover patients went on to do remarkably well on the drug.
Not only that, but the company has almost $1.8 per share of CASH.
And currently:
"As recently announced, tovecimig (DLL4 x VEGF-A bispecific antibody) in combination with paclitaxel demonstrated a highly statistically significant improvement in progression-free survival (PFS) versus paclitaxel alone as well as clear signals of a survival benefit in a Phase 2/3 study of patients with biliary tract cancer (BTC); tovecimig previously met the primary endpoint of overall response rate (ORR).
Tovecimig received Orphan Drug Designation in April and the Company intends to meet with the FDA in advance of its planned BLA submission later this year.
The Phase 1 dose-escalation study of CTX-8371 (PD-1 x PD-L1 bispecific antibody) has been selected for a poster presentation at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) 2026 Annual Meeting, highlighting three deep responses (TNBC, NSCLC, HL) in patients treated in the post-checkpoint inhibitor setting; cohort expansions in these indications have been initiated.
The Phase 1 study for CTX-10726 (PD-1 x VEGF-A bispecific antibody) has also been initiated in the post-checkpoint inhibitor setting, with initial data expected [Q4 2026].
$195 million in cash and marketable securities at Q1 2026, which is expected to fund operations into 2028."
If all goes well, this stock will violently surge at least 300%, but caution is to be advised due to the nature of it being a biotech stock.
TLDR:
OS miss was a crossover artifact, not a drug failure
Pre-BLA FDA meeting coming in mid-2026 — weeks away
$195M cash, runway to 2028
16 analysts, all Buy/Outperform, avg target ~$14
Orphan Drug Designation received in April
Pipeline (CTX-8371, CTX-10726) still advancing