I have the 1.01 and 1.02 in my draft starting this weekend. I have three 2027 1sts and am in Year 2 of a hard rebuild. You'll see below I am not close to contending, so I'm looking to 2028 with this pick.
I have depth at QB, and am looking past Mendoza to the top 3 receivers for my selection at 1.02. I know for many, this isn't a choice, but I'm leaning towards not taking Tate. The team at 1.07 has expressed interest in moving up for him, but unless I can make that move and then come back up to 1.04 (I expect Mendoza to go 1.03), I am not going to trade back, so I'll need to take my guy at 1.02.
Brief case for/against each guy below. I know this is a well-treaded topic but would love some input!
TATE (TEN)
PRO - Clearly paired with No. 1 pick at QB in an offense devoid of a No. 1 target; the only 2 Brian Daboll offenses to finish top-10 in passing both featured a top WR with over 120 targets; draft capital is no joke; 'fit' for any offense, ability to win in multiple ways/places on the field; consensus 'clean' prospect; NYG top-10 in plays/game last year while Daboll was HC
AGAINST - Hitching the wagon of his success to Cam Ward, on whom I am not at all sold; Tennessee is the worst (and worst-run) of these 3 teams and is likely to have a top-10 pick again next year, which could easily be another top-end pass catcher; NYJ passing offense under Saleh was disgusting (not apples to apples but still); AFC South pass defense is the best of these 3 divisions, IMO, leaving Tate with very difficult matchups multiple times per year in the immediate (specifically Houston, Indianapolis)
TYSON (NO)
PRO - Kellen Moore's offensive pace is tantalizing; Olave injury history+Contract situation means tyson could be WR1 as soon as 2027; NO clearly attempting to build around/evaluate Shough, and draft capital suggests Tyson is a center piece of that; love the athleticism to his game and believe him to be the highest-ceiling prospect of these three
AGAINST - Olave could sign an extension any time, locking Tyson in as WR2 in the immediate short-term or the long-term; Shough could regress in 2026; don't love his knee injury history and playing more games on turf than not
LEMON (PHI)
PRO - Highest floor, IMO, in the class; technically sound (like Tate) with inside/out versatility and best YAC production; Philly is the best-run organization of these 3 and least likely to 'screw up' this type of selection (ie: they will use him properly); despite the narrative about his ability/willingness to throw over the middle, hard to argue that Jalen Hurts isn't the best QB to be attached to among these 3; 'my guy' in the draft process, my favorite prospect (admittedly trying to guard against this bias)
AGAINST - Worst draft capital of the 3, 'dropped' relative to expectations on Day 1; stepping into a room with the most reliably healthy/productive WR1 already in place (Smith relative to Olave); Philly has the best and most-used run game among these 3 teams and the best RB, meaning its offense relies less on pass-catchers than the other 2 (this is a projection)
Am I crazy for leaning Tyson/Lemon? What would you do, or what would your mindset be with this pick? I am overthinking this for sure, but isn't that the point/half the fun? 😄
If you're pro-trading this pick, would you accept along with 1.07 to move off the 1.02? The owner of the 1.07 also owns 1.12, two '27 seconds, and some quality players (defending champ).
League: 0.5 PPR Superflex, play 9
My skill depth (or lackthereof):
WR - CeeDee Lamb, BTJ, Ricky Pearsall, Jayden Higgins, Jalen Nailor, dust
RB - (soon to be Love), Dylan Sampson, Tyjae Spears, young backups (B. Smith, J. Hunter, D. Giddens, J. Wright)
TE - Loveland, Gadsden, Barner, Helm