LeanFire / CoastFire sanity check
We looking at firing, but it's obviously a huge decision and I'd very much like someone to let me know if I'm missing anything, making a huge mistake, or have misinterpreted pensions/LISA's.
Married couple, 49M and 41F.
We have:
- £102k in Vanguard Global All Cap ISAs
- £307k in high risk tech stocks that will crash if/when the AI bubble bursts
- £30k in non-tech stocks
- £155k in pensions, 25% accessible in 2034 (mainly Vanguard)
- £18k in pensions, 25% accessible in 2042 (mainly Vanguard)
- £1k in a LISA
- £4k in current accounts
- £35k (probable) inheritance in the next decade
For a total of £652k
Our only debt is (Edit: £40k) £34k on our mortgage, it will be paid off in 16 years. The interest rate (4.15%) is lower than the expected Vanguard returns, so it seems sensible to not pay it off early.
Expenses over the last few years:
- 2023: £30.8k (£28.6k+£2.2k mortgage)
- 2024: £35.7k (£33.3k+£2.4k mortgage)
- 2025: £39.4k (£36.8k+£2.6k mortgage)
2025 had about £3k of one-off expenses, but I'd imagine most years have something unexpected.
We've always lived quite cheaply and our combined salary and spending is about £39k per year. We live in a low income and low cost of living part of the UK, and £39k is fine for us. We'll not be adding to the portfolio from our wages.
We're considering putting all the tech stocks in Vanguard Global All Cap to either LeanFire or CoastFire.
I've used a homemade spreadsheet, and assuming Vanguard grows by 4.6% more than inflation, we're safe to LeanFire.
Running it through an online calculator which more accurately reflect the randomness of the stock market, it looks a bit close, but "FireCalc" gives it a 57% success rate, or 72% using the "Ty Bernicke" formula (after you reach 55, you slowly reduce your spending). My wife has a degenerative back problem, so I imagine we'd do less as she ages. FireCalc is American, so might be missing some UK info.
Things I've accounted for:
- State Pension - I've assumed we'll both be entitled to £12k/year (my spreadsheet adjusted it by inflation only, not the triple lock)
- Paying National Insurance contributions of £918/year for each of us till we get 35 years
- Mortgage payments ending in 16 years.
Things I've not accounted for:
- Unexpected major expenses
- GBP getting stronger (which would weaken Vanguard Global All Cap).
- My wife's condition deteriorating enough to claim benefits
- Large market crash
If things go badly, I can return to work, but I'm not sure the wife will be able to.
Plan B would be to CoastFire, earn about £123 each week, which would cover the National Insurance Lower Earning Limit, and save us having to pay £918/year each for National Insurance.
Ideas that I'm not sure about:
- putting anything that's not needed into a pension / LISA to get the bonus?
I've barely used my LISA, preferring a Vanguard Pension, but the income tax limit is roughly the same as the state pension, and if it stays that way my private pension withdrawals will be taxed, but if I put the money in a LISA it'd be tax free?
Please let me know if we've missed anything.