You feel that time when its time to lock in and just trade...
It can be just straing at the screen, not even trading, but the feeling of you are not average hits you (at 3am e.g.)
What about you guys?
There's a concept that keeps coming up among the greatest speculators and analysts, saiying that markets don't move on logic, they move on probability and psychology.
André Kostolany, one of the most respected speculators of the 20th century, argued this his entire career. The daytraders' market doesn't know where it's going, it just reflects the collective weighted bets of millions of participants. Of course, that's a bit of an exaggeration though but the core idea holds
...But I asked myself: what if a strategy embraced that instead of fighting it?
I built an indicator that analyzes recent significant price moves and uses them to calculate a weighted probability for the next direction. Not a fixed signal. Not a guaranteed prediction. Just a mathematically informed bet, which is honestly all trading ever is.
Still in the backtesting phase, not trading it live yet.
My question to you: Do you think probability-based approaches have real edge in trading, or does a strategy need deterministic rules to be taken seriously?
